US Housing Stabilization Hinges on 2026 Spring Season, DC Market Plummets
Event summary
- Cotality's November 2025 Home Price Index shows year-over-year home price growth at 1%, a 14-year low.
- Washington, D.C. has become the second-fastest depreciating housing market, a significant shift from its previous ranking.
- Wyoming, New Jersey, Nebraska, Illinois, and Connecticut experienced the highest home price growth in November 2025.
- Cotality anticipates a potential resurgence in activity during the spring buying season of 2026, contingent on mortgage rate trends.
- Cotality's HPI Forecasts utilize an econometric model incorporating real disposable income and market momentum.
The big picture
The slowdown in U.S. home price growth, coupled with the dramatic shift in Washington, D.C.'s market performance, signals a potential recalibration of the housing sector following a period of rapid appreciation. This is likely a consequence of shifting federal priorities and a broader market stabilization, with regional variations becoming increasingly pronounced. The spring 2026 season will be a crucial test of whether pent-up demand can overcome persistent supply challenges.
What we're watching
- Mortgage Sensitivity
- Further declines in mortgage rates could trigger a surge in demand, potentially exacerbating supply constraints and driving price acceleration in select markets.
- Regional Divergence
- The disparity in home price growth between states will likely persist, emphasizing the importance of localized market analysis for investors and buyers.
- Policy Impact
- The ongoing effects of federal initiatives, as evidenced by the rapid depreciation in Washington, D.C., warrant close monitoring for broader market implications.
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