US Home Price Growth Stalls as Rate Surge Dampens Spring Market
Event summary
- Cotality's Home Price Index™ revealed U.S. home prices increased 0.5% year-over-year in February 2026, a significant slowdown.
- Month-over-month, home prices fell 0.16% in February 2026.
- The Midwest and Northeast (New Jersey +5.93%, Illinois +4.83%) exhibit price stability, contrasting with declines in Washington, D.C. (-3.01%), Florida (-2.30%), and Montana (-1.52%).
- Cotality forecasts U.S. home price gains to increase to 4.7% year-over-year in February 2027.
The big picture
Cotality's data highlights a fractured U.S. housing market, diverging significantly by region. The slowdown in price growth, coupled with the recent rate surge, suggests a more protracted rebalancing period than initially anticipated. This regional disparity underscores the limitations of national-level analysis and the need for granular, localized insights for investors and operators.
What we're watching
- Rate Impact
- The sensitivity of the housing market to further interest rate fluctuations will determine the trajectory of price recovery, particularly in previously overheated regions.
- Regional Divergence
- Whether the stability in the Midwest and Northeast can persist amidst broader economic headwinds and potential shifts in business location incentives.
- Risk Exposure
- The pace at which Florida markets, currently flagged as high-risk, may experience price corrections and the potential for contagion to other regions.
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