Fertilizer Prices Set to Stay High Through 2028, Squeezing U.S. Farmers
Event summary
- Fertilizer prices will remain above pre-Iran war levels through at least 2028 due to geopolitical instability and supply chain disruptions.
- Middle East conflicts have shut down or damaged 31 ammonia plants in the region, with additional disruptions affecting 49 plants in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.
- U.S. farmers are reducing phosphate and potassium use by 10–15% to manage costs, risking long-term soil degradation.
- China has banned phosphate exports through August 2026, with potential extensions due to high sulfur prices.
The big picture
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, coupled with constrained feedstock supplies, is reshaping global fertilizer trade flows. The U.S. agricultural sector faces sustained cost pressures as key inputs like urea and phosphate remain vulnerable to supply disruptions. Farmers' adjustments to nutrient management strategies highlight the delicate balance between short-term cost savings and long-term productivity.
What we're watching
- Geopolitical Risks
- How prolonged Middle East conflicts will affect global fertilizer supply and pricing.
- Supply Chain Adjustments
- Whether U.S. farmers can sustain reduced nutrient applications without long-term yield losses.
- Market Recovery Timing
- The pace at which fertilizer markets stabilize post-conflict and sulfur price normalization.
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