Megadeals Drive M&A Recovery, but Smaller Deals Lag

Event summary

Global M&A value rose 15% in the first eight months of 2026, exceeding the ten-year average by 11%.
Megadeals (transactions of $10 billion+) climbed to 37, up from 24 a year earlier and surpassing the 2021 record of 32.
Deal volume below $1 billion remains below longer-term norms, leaving the rebound narrower than aggregate numbers suggest.
BCG's M&A Sentiment Index rose to 83, up from 79, but still below its long-term average of 100.
AI is both fueling deals and complicating them, adding uncertainty around business models and valuations.

The big picture

The M&A market is experiencing a bifurcated recovery, with megadeals driving growth while smaller transactions lag. This divergence highlights the challenges of asset readiness, valuation gaps, and regulatory hurdles. The dual role of AI in fueling and complicating deals adds another layer of complexity to the market dynamics. North America leads in deal value, while Europe shows strong percentage growth, and Asia-Pacific activity declines.

What we're watching

Deal Execution: How asset readiness and valuation gaps will determine which transactions move forward.
Regulatory Shifts: Whether national-security screening and foreign-investment controls will continue to influence deal terms and timing.
AI Impact: The pace at which AI will both drive and complicate M&A activity across different sectors.