U.S. Wine Market Hits $115B Despite Declining Consumption
Event summary
- U.S. wine spending reached $115B in 2025, up 3%, despite a decline in consumption.
- California wine production has dropped 25% in less than a decade.
- Direct-to-consumer wine sales fell 15% in volume and 6% in value.
- 71% of wineries expect industry stabilization or rebound within 3 years.
The big picture
The U.S. wine industry is undergoing a fundamental reset, with higher prices masking deeper consumption declines. Wineries must navigate shrinking supply, shifting distribution dynamics, and evolving consumer preferences. BMO's expanded Wine Partnership aims to provide deeper insights into these challenges, as the market transitions to fewer wineries, less excess inventory, and more competitive pricing strategies.
What we're watching
- Consumer Reset
- How wineries will adapt to structural declines in wine consumption.
- Supply Adjustments
- The pace at which California wine production stabilizes post-harvest pullbacks.
- Distribution Shifts
- Whether wineries can sustain growth through direct sales as distributors destabilize.