Bain Forecasts Slower Retail Sales Growth in Major Economies Amid Consumer Pressures
Event summary
- Bain & Company forecasts US retail sales growth to slow to 3.5% in 2026, down from 4.0% in 2025, reaching $5.3 trillion.
- UK retail sales expected to grow 2% in 2026, with flat volume growth in food and slightly negative in non-food categories.
- France's retail sales growth projected at 1.5% in 2026, down from 1.7% in 2025, with largely flat volume growth.
- Germany's retail sales to grow 2.5% in 2026, down from 3.6% in 2025, with moderate underlying volume growth.
The big picture
Bain's forecast highlights a broader trend of slowing retail sales growth in major economies due to financial pressures on consumers. The shift towards value-focused shopping and the need for retailers to leverage AI to enhance value creation are critical strategic considerations. This slowdown reflects broader economic uncertainties, including rising unemployment, elevated mortgage rates, and inflationary pressures.
What we're watching
- Consumer Sentiment
- How mounting consumer strain and waning confidence will affect retail sales growth in the US and Europe.
- Value Proposition
- Whether retailers can sharpen their customer value propositions to compete with AI platforms and private-label goods.
- Economic Policies
- The impact of potential interest rate cuts, wage growth, and government spending on consumer spending power.
Related topics