Atradius Forecasts Persistent Insolvency Pressures Through 2026…

Event summary

Global insolvencies projected to rise 5% in 2026, then decline 4% in 2027, per Atradius Insolvency Outlook.
High input costs, trade tensions, and tighter financing conditions cited as key drivers of insolvency trends.
Europe and Asia-Pacific expected to see 5% insolvency declines in 2027, while North America sees 3% decrease.
UK insolvencies to remain near historically high levels due to post-pandemic debt and weak consumer demand.
Romania is one of the few markets where insolvencies are expected to increase further in 2027.

The big picture

Atradius's revised forecast underscores the prolonged impact of high input costs and trade tensions on global insolvency rates. The expected decline in 2027 is driven more by business adaptation than economic improvement, signaling a structural shift in corporate resilience strategies. The regional disparities highlight varying levels of economic vulnerability, with Europe and Asia-Pacific leading the recovery while North America and select markets like the UK and Romania face persistent challenges.

What we're watching

Economic Normalization: The pace at which global insolvencies normalize in H2 2027, as businesses adapt to higher-cost environments.
Regional Disparities: Whether the UK and Romania can mitigate their unique insolvency pressures amid persistent economic challenges.
Business Resilience: How effectively firms in North America and Asia-Pacific sustain their adaptation strategies through 2027.