Atradius Warns of Rising Economic Risks for Fuel-Importing Nations Amid Slower Energy Transition
Event summary
- Atradius's Energy Outlook report highlights a structural slowdown in the global energy transition, pushing oil and gas demand peaks later than expected.
- 63 countries have net fuel-import bills exceeding 4% of GDP, with many emerging markets already running sizeable current-account deficits.
- More than half of these fuel-importing nations may see deterioration in their current-account positions by 2035 due to higher fossil-fuel prices.
- Atradius identifies Tunisia, Pakistan, and Lebanon as particularly vulnerable economies facing pronounced impacts.
The big picture
Atradius's report underscores the growing macroeconomic vulnerability for fuel-importing economies as the energy transition slows. With fossil-fuel prices expected to remain higher for longer, emerging markets face heightened risks, particularly those already struggling with current-account deficits. The structural decline in fuel dependence remains insufficient to shield these nations from global oil price swings, necessitating broader resilience strategies.
What we're watching
- Geopolitical Risks
- How ongoing conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, will continue to impact global oil prices and fuel-importing economies.
- Energy Transition Pace
- Whether advancements in renewable energy and electrification can sufficiently reduce fossil-fuel dependence to mitigate economic vulnerabilities.
- Economic Resilience Strategies
- The effectiveness of fuel-importing countries' strategies to strengthen export capacity, improve competitiveness, and reduce nonenergy import reliance.