5G Spending to Peak at $92B by 2027 as Buildouts Slow, 6G Looms
Event summary
- Global mobile network spending to peak at $92B in 2026-2027, then decline to $65B by 2031 as 5G deployments mature.
- 5G population coverage expected to reach 60% by end of 2025, driven by rapid deployments in India (500K+ 5G base stations installed in 3 years).
- Major vendors report slowing RAN equipment growth: Ericsson and Nokia saw flat growth in 2025, ZTE reported a 5.9% YoY decline in its Carriers’ Networks segment.
- Open RAN adoption forecast to grow at 26.5% CAGR through 2031, but incumbent suppliers will likely maintain market dominance.
The big picture
The peak in 5G spending marks the end of a rapid expansion phase for mobile network infrastructure. As operators shift focus to 6G preparation, vendors face slowing growth and potential market consolidation. The adoption of Open RAN remains a key wildcard, with potential to disrupt the traditional supplier landscape. This transition period will test the strategic agility of both operators and equipment providers.
What we're watching
- Infrastructure Demand
- How the stabilization of 5G infrastructure demand will impact vendor revenues and market positioning.
- 6G Preparation
- The pace at which operators transition from 5G to 6G and the associated investment requirements.
- Open RAN Adoption
- Whether Open RAN can gain significant market share despite incumbent supplier dominance.
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