U.S. Online Holiday Sales to Surge 6.7% to $275.1 Billion, Adobe…

Event summary

Adobe forecasts U.S. online holiday sales to reach $275.1 billion, up 6.7% YoY, from November 1 to December 31, 2026.
Cyber Week (Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday) expected to drive $47.5 billion, up 7.4% YoY, with Cyber Monday projected to hit $15.1 billion.
Pre-season spending in October to surge 8% YoY, with Prime Day driving $9.9 billion in sales.
Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) expected to facilitate $21.3 billion in holiday spend, up 6.6% YoY.
AI-driven traffic to U.S. retail sites anticipated to rise 130% YoY, with significant increases on Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday.

The big picture

Adobe's forecast highlights the continued shift towards online shopping, with significant growth in mobile and AI-driven transactions. The pre-season spending surge underscores the importance of early promotions and inventory management for retailers. The rise of Buy Now Pay Later further emphasizes the evolving payment preferences of consumers, driven by flexibility and convenience.

What we're watching

Pre-Season Spending: Whether the acceleration of pre-season spending in October, driven by events like Prime Day, will continue to reshape the traditional holiday shopping calendar.
Discount Strategies: How retailers will manage promotions and inventory to capture the additional pre-season spike in shopping interest.
AI Integration: The pace at which AI-powered shopping tools will influence consumer purchasing decisions and drive traffic to retail sites.