The New Economic Intelligence: Private Data Reshapes National Insight

CHICAGO, IL – December 11, 2025

Next week, a Chicago-based data firm, Numerator, will release a new inflation metric. While on the surface it appears to be a tool for consumer brands and economists, its debut marks a significant development in a much larger trend: the growing reliance on private sector innovation for critical national intelligence. Just as commercial satellite companies have revolutionized geopolitical and defense analysis, data technology firms are now providing a high-resolution, real-time view into the economic bedrock of the nation, offering insights that are becoming indispensable for assessing economic stability and competitiveness.

On December 16, Numerator will publish its November inflation data, powered by a novel methodology that goes beyond traditional government reporting. This isn't merely another economic indicator; it represents a shift in how economic health is monitored. By leveraging proprietary data streams, companies like Numerator are building capabilities that complement, and in some cases outpace, the tools used by federal agencies, creating a new, dynamic layer of intelligence for policymakers and strategic planners.

A Demand-Side View of the Economy

At the heart of Numerator's new measure is a fundamentally different approach to data collection. While government indices like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index are cornerstones of economic analysis, they are built primarily from data collected from businesses and surveys. Numerator’s metric is built from the ground up, using what it calls “verified, item-level retail purchase data” sourced directly from a panel of 200,000 demographically representative U.S. households.

This demand-side perspective captures not just what prices are changing, but how consumers are reacting to those changes in near real-time. The platform tracks granular behavioral shifts that traditional metrics are not designed to measure with such immediacy. These include:

• Brand Switching: When a price increase on a national brand leads consumers to opt for a private-label alternative.
• Downsizing: When shoppers continue buying the same brand but shift to smaller package sizes to manage costs, a phenomenon known as “shrinkflation” from the consumer’s perspective.
• Channel Shifting: Observing whether consumers are moving from traditional grocery stores to discount retailers or online platforms to find better prices.

This methodology provides a powerful lens on the real-world impact of economic pressures on household budgets. While the data covers approximately 20% of the consumption basket found in the CPI and PCE—focusing on everyday goods like groceries, household items, and health products—this segment represents the high-frequency purchases that often serve as a leading indicator of broader economic sentiment and stress.

Beyond Traditional Economic Indices

A crucial distinction lies in how Numerator’s approach contrasts with its government counterparts. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI, for example, traditionally uses a fixed-weight basket of goods, meaning it measures the price change of the same items over time. This provides a clear measure of pure price inflation but can be slow to reflect shifts in consumer purchasing habits. The Bureau of Economic Analysis’ PCE index, the Federal Reserve's preferred gauge, does account for consumer substitution, but it is a broader measure that includes expenditures made on behalf of consumers, like healthcare paid by insurance.

Numerator's metric provides a direct, observational proof of the substitution effect that the PCE models. It doesn't estimate substitution; it sees it happening at the checkout counter. This offers a uniquely current and behavioral view that can validate or challenge the assumptions embedded in broader economic models. The ability to update data weekly and aggregate it monthly also offers a significant speed advantage over official statistics, which are released on a monthly basis with a built-in lag.

For policymakers and financial institutions, this speed and granularity are not just academic advantages. Early visibility into consumer stress or shifts in spending can inform more agile monetary and fiscal policy. Understanding precisely which goods are driving inflationary pressure and how households are coping provides a strategic advantage in forecasting economic trends and mitigating potential instability.

The Privatization of Strategic Intelligence

Numerator’s initiative is emblematic of a wider movement where private companies are becoming critical sources of national-level intelligence. In the defense and space sectors, firms like Maxar and Planet Labs provide high-resolution satellite imagery that has become essential for tracking troop movements, assessing battlefield damage, and monitoring geopolitical hotspots, often with greater speed and accessibility than classified government assets.

This new inflation metric positions Numerator within an analogous economic intelligence ecosystem. The market for consumer data is already a competitive landscape, with established giants like NielsenIQ and Circana providing essential market measurement for the CPG and retail industries. However, Numerator’s focus on a continuously monitored, first-party consumer panel and its explicit framing as an inflation indicator push it into the realm of macroeconomic analysis.

This trend has profound strategic implications. As private firms develop increasingly sophisticated capabilities to collect and analyze vast datasets—from consumer purchases to satellite imagery to supply chain logistics—they create a new class of strategic assets. This data provides a competitive edge not only for the companies that use it but for the nations that can effectively integrate it into their economic and security planning.

The ability to see economic shifts as they happen, rather than a month later, allows for a more proactive posture in managing national economic health, which is an undeniable component of national security. As global competition intensifies, the countries and corporations with the clearest, fastest, and most comprehensive understanding of both the global landscape and their own domestic economic pulse will hold a significant advantage. The future of strategic intelligence will increasingly be defined not just by what can be seen from space, but by the trillions of data points generated every day here on the ground.