The Great B.C. Reversal: How a Migration Plunge Reshapes an Economy

VANCOUVER, BC – July 29, 2026 – For years, the story of Southwest British Columbia’s economy has been one of relentless growth, fueled by a torrent of international newcomers and mirrored by a seemingly unstoppable rise in housing costs. That era has come to an abrupt end. A new report from the Chartered Professional Accountants of British Columbia (CPABC) reveals a market in the midst of a dramatic reversal, with housing prices moderating as net international migration to the region plummets by an astonishing 83.4 per cent.

The shift, detailed in CPABC’s quarterly BC Check-Up, signals a profound transformation with consequences reaching far beyond real estate listings. As a wave of new housing supply meets suddenly diminished demand, the province is entering uncharted territory, grappling with an aging population, a softer labor market, and fundamental questions about its path to future prosperity.

“The smaller increase in Southwest B.C.’s population reflects a country-wide reduction in international newcomers to Canada,” said Lori Mathison, FCPA, LLB, president and CEO of CPABC, in the release. “As migration patterns continue to change, the effects will be more pronounced in the Lower Mainland.”

A Policy-Induced Population Shock

The demographic whiplash detailed in the report is no accident; it is the direct result of a deliberate and sweeping federal policy pivot. Facing intense public pressure over strained infrastructure, healthcare, and a severe housing affordability crisis, Ottawa has moved aggressively to curb the rapid population growth of recent years.

Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has laid out a new plan to stabilize permanent resident admissions and, more critically, to slash the intake of temporary residents, including international students and workers. The national goal is to reduce the number of temporary residents to below 5% of Canada’s population by the end of 2026. For British Columbia, a primary destination for newcomers, the impact has been immediate and severe.

The province’s Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allocation—a key tool for attracting skilled workers—was cut by 50% for 2025, dropping from 8,000 nominations to just 4,000. This forced the provincial government to narrow its focus to essential roles in healthcare and high-impact sectors, effectively closing the door for many who once saw B.C. as their destination. The CPABC data reflects this reality: while Southwest B.C. still gained 22,880 residents from other countries in 2025, this figure represents a collapse from the levels seen just a year prior.

Adding to the pressure, the region continues to see a net outflow of residents to other parts of Canada. The report notes that Southwest B.C. lost over 5,500 people to other provinces and another 12,500 to other regions within B.C., suggesting that even with moderating prices, affordability and opportunity remain significant challenges for many locals.

Supply Finally Meets a Cooled Demand

For prospective homebuyers and renters, the demographic shift is translating into tangible relief. The core principle of supply and demand is playing out in real-time across the Lower Mainland. As fewer people compete for housing, a record-breaking surge in new construction is finally tipping the scales.

According to CMHC data, nearly 41,500 new housing units were completed across B.C.’s major urban centers in 2025, a new high. Crucially, over 81% of these were multi-family units like apartments and condominiums—the very housing stock needed to increase density and affordability. In the Lower Mainland alone, over 26,000 multi-unit homes were completed last year.

“There is a lot of new supply being added into a cooling market, leading to lower housing prices,” Mathison concluded in her statement. “It’s an adjustment from where the market was just a few years ago, when conditions were extremely tight.”

This adjustment is stark. As of June 2026, the benchmark price for a single-family home in the Lower Mainland fell 6.8% year-over-year to $1.63 million. The apartment market saw an even steeper decline, with the benchmark price dropping 7.2% to $636,400. In the rental market, the change is equally palpable. The vacancy rate in Greater Vancouver more than doubled, jumping from a painfully tight 1.6% in 2024 to a much healthier 3.7% in 2025. Consequently, average rent growth decelerated from 5.8% to just 2.0%.

The New Economic Reality: An Aging Workforce and Slower Growth

Beyond the housing market, the migration slowdown is reshaping the province's fundamental economic and social fabric. The CPABC report highlights a concerning demographic trend: the average age in Southwest B.C. has climbed to 41.5 years. Seniors aged 65 and older are the fastest-growing demographic, increasing by 3.7%, while the number of young people aged 15 to 24—the future of the workforce—fell by 2.7%.

This aging trend, exacerbated by the sharp reduction in younger international students and workers, poses a significant challenge for a province that has long relied on immigration to fuel its labor force and economic expansion. The “weaker labour market” noted in the report is both a cause and an effect of these shifts. With slower population growth, overall economic activity is projected to cool, with B.C.’s real GDP growth expected to remain modest at 1.5% in 2026.

In a surprising and telling twist, while B.C. struggles to attract newcomers, a record number of its own residents are leaving the country entirely. In 2025, over 30,000 British Columbians emigrated from Canada, a 24% increase from the previous year. This silent exodus, driven by high living costs and a search for better opportunities elsewhere, suggests the province’s affordability and economic challenges run deeper than just the pressures of immigration.

For policymakers, this creates a complex balancing act. The very policies designed to alleviate the housing crisis are now contributing to a potential labor shortage and slower economic growth. As one analyst noted, Canada is entering a “new era of containment” on immigration, a move that may satisfy public sentiment on housing but could carry a steep economic price. The challenge for B.C. will be to navigate this new normal, fostering a more sustainable and affordable province without sacrificing the dynamism and growth that has long defined it.