The 17% Solution: Elite Traders Struggle as Market Soars in US Championship

LOS ANGELES, CA – July 28, 2026

The first-half results from the 2026 United States Investing Championship (USIC) have delivered a sobering lesson in market reality. In a period where the S&P 500 index climbed an impressive 10.2%, a staggering 83% of the competition's 688 participants failed to turn a profit. Only 115 traders, a mere 17% of the field, finished the six-month period in the black.

This stark figure comes not from a pool of novices, but from a prestigious competition that has, since 1983, served as a proving ground for legendary traders like Paul Tudor Jones, Mark Minervini, and Dr. Edward O. Thorp. The contest tracks real-money accounts, providing an unfiltered and often humbling look at the challenge of active investment management. The results raise a critical question for business leaders and investors alike: if a self-selected group of serious traders struggles this much to find an edge, what does it reveal about the systems and strategies required to generate true alpha?

A Humbling Benchmark for Active Management

The USIC's 17% profitability rate serves as a powerful, real-world data point in the long-standing debate between active and passive investing. While a 10.2% market gain might seem like a rising tide that should lift all boats, the results demonstrate that active trading introduces complexities and risks that can easily swamp a portfolio. The freedom to pick stocks, time the market, and employ leverage is also the freedom to make costly errors.

"The paradox of a bull market is that it can breed overconfidence and encourage undisciplined risk-taking," noted one veteran market strategist. "Traders might chase high-flying momentum stocks at their peak, get whipsawed by sector rotations, or simply fail to manage the psychological pressure of daily P&L swings. The index doesn't have emotions; traders do." This dynamic appears to be on full display, where the majority underperformed a simple buy-and-hold strategy.

The competition, coordinated by Dr. Norman Zadeh, provides this transparent benchmark year after year. By tracking real money, it cuts through the noise of hypothetical backtests and marketing claims, offering a rigorous assessment of skill. The low success rate underscores the difficulty of the endeavor and makes the achievements of those who did succeed all the more remarkable.

The Outliers: Stratospheric Gains in a High-Risk Arena

While the majority struggled, a handful of participants generated returns that can only be described as astronomical. These extraordinary gains were concentrated in the 'enhanced growth' divisions, where traders are permitted to use futures and options—instruments that provide significant leverage but carry commensurate risk.

Leading the pack with a breathtaking 1,656.3% gain is Omar Barkawi of Seattle, competing in the division for accounts between $20,000 and $1,000,000. Mr. Barkawi’s background is not in traditional finance but in technology; he holds a master’s degree in systems engineering from Worcester Polytechnic Institute. His success points to a methodical, systems-based approach to navigating the high-velocity world of derivatives trading. It’s a powerful example of how quantitative and engineering disciplines are being successfully applied to financial markets.

In the $1,000,000+ enhanced growth division, Baran Kayhan, who manages the Toronto-based hedge fund Euclid Technologies, posted a stunning 349.5% return. In a remarkable display of skill, Mr. Kayhan also competed in the smaller enhanced growth division, where he secured second place with a 623.9% gain. These dual high-placing finishes suggest a robust and scalable strategy. However, the very structure of this high-risk category implies a brutal downside. For every trader achieving quadruple-digit returns, many others likely faced catastrophic losses, a factor contributing to the low overall profitability rate.

Diverse Paths to Double- and Triple-Digit Returns

Success in the championship was not confined to high-leverage derivatives. The stock-only divisions also saw incredible performances from individuals with notably diverse professional backgrounds, challenging the notion that a Wall Street pedigree is a prerequisite for investment success.

Dr. Tom Doub of Arcadia Analytics in Tennessee, for example, achieved a phenomenal 880.7% return to lead the $20,000 to $1,000,000 stock division. Dr. Doub’s primary career was not in finance, but in behavioral health; he previously taught as a Clinical Psychologist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. His ability to generate market-crushing returns suggests that the discipline, emotional regulation, and deep understanding of human behavior honed in psychology are highly transferable and powerful assets in the trading arena.

Leading the prestigious $1,000,000+ stock division was Abdulmajid M. Al Qurashi from Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, with a 73.6% gain. Mr. Al Qurashi is the Deputy CEO of Abdul Samad Al Qurashi, a renowned Middle Eastern fragrance company. His success demonstrates that keen business acumen and strategic insight from one industry can be effectively leveraged to analyze and capitalize on opportunities in public markets. Other top performers included Sheri Marcus, an accomplished artist from Georgia, and Tim Garner, a former NASA contractor and Ironman competitor, further highlighting the wide array of experiences that can forge a successful trader.

Consistency, while rare, was also on display. Martin Luk of Hong Kong, who won the 2025 competition with a 969.8% gain, placed third in his division this half with an impressive 421.2% return. His continued success points to a refined, repeatable system built on what has been described as a "risk-first philosophy."

A Legacy of Talent and a Mission Beyond Markets

The United States Investing Championship has long served as a crucial platform for identifying the next generation of top-tier financial talent, standing on the shoulders of past participants who became industry legends. The extreme difficulty of the competition, and the exceptional skill of its winners, reinforces its status as a premier arbiter of trading prowess.

At the center of this decades-long project is its coordinator, Dr. Norman Zadeh. With a background that includes teaching Operations Research at universities like Stanford and UCLA and managing hedge funds for over two decades, Dr. Zadeh brings a unique blend of academic rigor and practical market experience to the competition. His father, Lotfi Zadeh, was the creator of fuzzy logic, a field of study that embraces ambiguity and nuance—concepts every successful trader must master.

Perhaps most tellingly, Dr. Zadeh also channels the proceeds and visibility of his work toward a mission far removed from financial gain. He is the president of the Lotfi Zadeh Foundation, a charity dedicated to building thousands of ultra-low-cost residences for the homeless. This commitment provides a powerful perspective, framing the intense, high-stakes world of financial competition within a broader context of social responsibility and innovation for the public good.