Radware's Earnings to Test AI Security Boom Amid Market Scrutiny

TEL AVIV, Israel – January 07, 2026 – Radware (NASDAQ: RDWR), a global player in AI-driven application security, has set the stage for a critical financial disclosure, announcing it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings on Wednesday, February 11, 2026. The subsequent investor call is poised to be a significant barometer for the health of the cybersecurity sector, offering insights into corporate spending on digital defense and the tangible returns on heavy investments in artificial intelligence.

Investors and industry analysts will be closely watching the report and the management's outlook for the first quarter of 2026. The announcement comes as businesses worldwide grapple with an increasingly complex threat landscape, making Radware's performance a key indicator of market confidence in advanced, automated security solutions for multi-cloud environments.

A High Bar Set by Strong 2025 Momentum

Radware enters this reporting period with considerable momentum, having delivered strong results in the third quarter of 2025. The company reported an 8% year-over-year revenue increase to $75.3 million, slightly surpassing analyst expectations. More importantly, its Cloud Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) surged by 24% year-over-year, reaching $89 million, a sign of robust demand for its subscription-based security services. This performance led to a non-GAAP diluted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.28, a 22% increase from the previous year.

For the upcoming report, the company itself set a high bar, providing fourth-quarter revenue guidance in the range of $78 million to $79 million and a non-GAAP diluted EPS forecast of $0.29 to $0.30. Meeting or exceeding this guidance will be crucial for maintaining investor confidence. The key metric under the microscope will undoubtedly be the continued growth of its Cloud ARR, which management has consistently highlighted as a cornerstone of its long-term strategy.

Analysts hold a mixed but cautiously optimistic view, with consensus ratings hovering between "Hold" and "Moderate Buy." Average 12-month price targets sit in the $30.00 to $32.50 range, suggesting potential upside from current trading levels. However, the market's reaction will likely hinge less on past performance and more on the forward-looking statements made during the February 11th call.

Navigating a Dynamic Threat and Market Landscape

Radware's results will be interpreted within the context of a rapidly evolving cybersecurity market. The global application security market was valued at over $13 billion in 2025 and is on a steep trajectory, with some projections forecasting it to exceed $30 billion by 2030. This growth is fueled by relentless digital transformation, the mass migration to multi-cloud architectures, and stringent regulatory requirements.

The threat landscape has also become more perilous. 2025 saw threat actors increasingly leveraging AI for offensive purposes, from generating sophisticated phishing campaigns to automating attacks. Ransomware-as-a-Service (RaaS) models have continued to proliferate, shifting tactics from mere data encryption to outright extortion. This environment creates a powerful tailwind for companies like Radware that specialize in automated, real-time protection against DDoS attacks, malicious bots, and API abuse.

Furthermore, the broader macroeconomic environment appears favorable. A 2025 "uncertainty pause" in IT spending has largely dissipated, replaced by what Gartner describes as a "GenAI boom." The research firm projects worldwide IT spending will grow by 9.8% in 2026 to reach an unprecedented $6.08 trillion, largely driven by investments in AI-ready infrastructure. This surge in spending, particularly in data center systems and AI-infused software, creates a fertile ground for cybersecurity providers whose solutions are integral to securing these new investments.

AI as the Competitive Edge

Central to Radware's narrative is its deep investment in artificial intelligence. The company has moved aggressively to position its AI-driven algorithms as a key differentiator. In late 2025, it made several strategic moves to reinforce this position, including the launch of a specialized LLM Firewall to protect generative AI models and an AI-powered cloud DDoS protection service.

These product innovations are supported by significant infrastructure investment. On January 6, 2026, Radware announced it had doubled its global cloud security capacity after opening numerous new security centers throughout 2025. This expansion is designed to enhance performance and meet the growing global demand for its cloud-based offerings. The company's focus has not gone unnoticed, earning it leadership recognition in industry reports from SPARK Matrix and KuppingerCole for its web application firewall (WAF) and API protection capabilities.

The upcoming earnings call will provide management a platform to elaborate on how these AI-centric strategies are translating into market share and revenue. Stakeholders will be keen to understand the adoption rate of these new AI-specific products and their contribution to the bottom line.

Competitive Pressures and the Importance of Outlook

The application security space is intensely competitive, with Radware facing off against giants like F5, Akamai, and Cloudflare. A look at key competitor F5 Networks offers a cautionary tale about market expectations. In its late October 2025 earnings report, F5 beat revenue and earnings estimates, driven by strong hardware sales. However, its stock dipped in after-hours trading after it issued a cautious forward-looking guidance for fiscal year 2026, which fell below analyst expectations.

This highlights a critical point for Radware: its Q1 2026 outlook will be as, if not more, important than its 2025 results. A strong forecast would signal confidence in its ability to continue its growth trajectory and effectively compete. Any hint of a slowdown or uncertainty could overshadow even the most stellar full-year performance. The February 11th call will therefore be a crucial test of Radware's narrative, where its ability to articulate a clear and confident path forward in the AI-driven security race will be paramount.