Namib Minerals' Profit Soars, But Rising Costs and Risky Bets Loom

NEW YORK, NY – April 02, 2026 – Namib Minerals (Nasdaq: NAMM) presented a dazzling set of full-year 2025 results today, headlined by a staggering profit of $101.2 million, a dramatic leap from $3.6 million in the prior year. However, a deeper dive into the African gold miner’s financials reveals a complex picture where soaring accounting gains mask underlying operational headwinds, rising costs, and an ambitious, high-stakes growth strategy centered on its Zimbabwean assets.

The company, which operates the How Mine in Zimbabwe and aims to become a multi-asset African mining platform, also laid out its plans for expansion and issued aggressive guidance for 2026. While newly appointed CEO Tulani Sikwila hailed 2025 as a year of "disciplined progress," investors are now tasked with weighing the company's bold vision against the significant risks and challenging financial realities embedded in its latest update.

A Tale of Two Profits

At first glance, Namib Minerals’ profit surge is the story of a thriving enterprise. Yet, the engine behind this growth was not gold pulled from the earth but rather the stroke of an accountant’s pen. The company’s income statement was overwhelmingly influenced by non-cash items related to its recent public listing. This included a massive $158.8 million gain from the revaluation of earnout liabilities and $65.4 million in one-time, non-cash listing expenses.

An earnout liability revaluation gain typically signifies a reduced expectation of future contingent payments, which, while boosting reported profit, provides no actual cash inflow. When these non-cash items are set aside, the operational picture for 2025 appears far more challenging.

Gold production from the company’s flagship How Mine fell to approximately 25,000 ounces, down from over 37,000 in 2024. This decline, attributed to a "lower grade environment," had a direct impact on efficiency. Cash costs (C1) per ounce ballooned by over 43% to $1,653, up from $1,150 the previous year, as a largely fixed cost base was spread across fewer ounces of gold. While a strong gold price provided a buffer, generating a stable gross profit of $34.2 million, the underlying cost pressures are undeniable.

The company's performance stands in stark contrast to that of its Zimbabwe-based competitor, Caledonia Mining Corporation, which produced over 76,000 ounces in 2025 and reported an EBITDA of $125.3 million, more than quadrupling Namib's $29.0 million in adjusted EBITDA. This comparison highlights Namib Minerals' current position as a smaller player facing significant operational hurdles as it strives to scale up.

A High-Stakes Bet on Brownfield Growth

Despite the operational challenges, Namib Minerals is doubling down on its growth strategy in Zimbabwe. The company is proceeding with a planned expansion of its How Mine milling capacity, aiming to increase throughput by over 35% to 55,000 tonnes per month by the second half of 2026. This investment is crucial for increasing production and potentially mitigating the high per-ounce costs.

The company's most audacious move, however, is the planned restart of the Redwing Mine. This project is fraught with both immense potential and considerable risk. The mine has a turbulent history, having been placed under corporate rescue in 2020 after years of financial and operational difficulties under its previous owner. Its past is marred by intermittent closures, safety incidents, and significant challenges related to widespread artisanal mining, which has led to environmental degradation and numerous fatalities.

Namib Minerals announced that dewatering activities—a critical first step to make the flooded underground workings accessible—commenced in late January 2026. The company is pursuing "non-dilutive and minimally dilutive funding solutions," including engagement with development finance institutions (DFIs). This strategy, while protecting current shareholders from dilution, will likely bring intense scrutiny. DFIs typically impose strict environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards, forcing Namib to demonstrate a clear and credible plan to overcome Redwing's legacy of safety and environmental issues. Successfully reviving Redwing would be a company-making achievement, but the path is littered with technical, financial, and social obstacles.

An Optimistic Outlook on Shaky Ground

Looking ahead, Namib Minerals has issued guidance that hinges on a highly optimistic view of the gold market. The company projects 2026 production from How Mine to be between 28,000 and 31,500 ounces, with an adjusted EBITDA of $50 million to $62 million. Crucially, this guidance is based on an assumed average gold price of $4,500 per ounce.

While gold prices have been exceptionally strong, setting numerous records in 2025, and many analysts remain bullish, an average price of $4,500 for 2026 is at the higher end of even the most optimistic forecasts. This makes the company's profitability highly sensitive to gold price fluctuations.

Even more telling is the projected All-In Sustaining Cost (AISC) for 2026, which is guided to be between $2,400 and $2,700 per ounce. This represents a dramatic increase from 2025's C1 cost of $1,653 and is significantly higher than the industry average. The sharp rise reflects the heavy capital investment in the How Mine expansion, the initial costs of the Redwing restart, and persistent inflationary pressures. This high cost base leaves very little margin for error. Should the gold price fail to reach the company's lofty $4,500 target, the projected EBITDA could evaporate quickly, putting pressure on the company's ability to fund its ambitious growth plans.

New Leadership for a New Chapter

To steer the company through this pivotal period, Namib Minerals has revamped its leadership team. Tulani Sikwila, a company veteran of nearly two decades and former CFO, was appointed Chief Executive Officer in March. His deep institutional knowledge, financial background as a Chartered Accountant, and regional network are seen as critical assets for navigating the complex financial and strategic challenges ahead.

He is joined by Antonio Nieto, a seasoned mining expert with over 25 years of experience, who has been appointed Vice President of Technical Services. Nieto’s background in mining technology, innovation, and sustainability at major firms like Gold Fields and his Ph.D. in mining engineering bring a wealth of technical firepower. His role will be essential in overseeing the complex How Mine expansion and, most critically, de-risking the challenging Redwing restart.

This new leadership team is tasked with a formidable balancing act: executing a capital-intensive growth strategy while managing a high-cost operational environment and navigating the volatile gold market. Their ability to deliver on the promised production growth while maintaining cost discipline will ultimately determine whether Namib Minerals can transform its vision of a multi-asset African mining platform into a profitable reality.