Global Business Defies War and Tariffs with Surprising Growth Outlook

WILMINGTON, Del. – April 29, 2026

By Timothy Bell

In a world reeling from the recent Iran-US-Israel conflict and grappling with punitive trade tariffs, a new landmark study reveals a startling counter-narrative: global businesses are not retreating. Instead, nearly half are forecasting growth in 2026, demonstrating a remarkable resilience that defies widespread economic pessimism.

The report, "Resilience in a Fragmented World," published by the Gedeth Research Center, surveyed over 50,000 professionals across 90 countries in the first quarter of 2026. The findings show that despite escalating geopolitical turmoil, 48.7% of businesses expect growth this year—a figure that significantly outpaces the International Monetary Fund's more cautious 3.1% global GDP forecast. This pragmatic optimism signals a profound shift in corporate strategy, where adaptation and agility are replacing panic and paralysis as the dominant response to global shocks.

A New Playbook for a Fractured World

The study, conducted in collaboration with DHL Express and Universidade Europeia, uniquely captured business sentiment both before and after the outbreak of the Iran-US-Israel war. While the conflict visibly shook confidence—dropping the percentage of optimistic firms from 59.3% pre-war to 45% post-war—it did not trigger a collapse. A mere 6.8% of respondents predict a decline in business, suggesting that companies have learned hard lessons from previous crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and are now better equipped to navigate volatility.

This isn't a story of ignoring risk, but of actively managing it. The primary threats are clear, with 67% of business leaders citing geopolitical instability and 50.9% pointing to tariffs and trade barriers as their top concerns. Yet, rather than pulling back from the global stage, companies are rewriting their playbooks. The leading strategies reported are diversification of markets and supply chains (33.7%) and a relentless focus on efficiency and productivity (22.1%).

"These are complicated times, difficult to navigate, but companies are adapting and demonstrating remarkable resilience," said Juan Millán, CEO and Founder of Gedeth Network, in the report's release. "From tariffs to wars, businesses aren't retreating—they're rewriting playbooks with pragmatic optimism, evolving from China+1 to China+N for risk mitigation."

Small Business, Big Agility

Perhaps the most striking finding is the source of this optimism. It's not the corporate giants, but the small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) that are leading the charge. SMBs with 10 to 50 employees are the most confident cohort, with an impressive 55% projecting growth for 2026.

Their advantage lies in what the report calls "superior pivoting agility." Unburdened by the complex legacy supply chains and rigid structures that can hamper larger corporations, these smaller firms can make decisions faster, adapt to changing conditions more rapidly, and pivot to new opportunities with greater ease. This is reflected in their strategic priorities; while larger firms tend to focus on cost optimization, SMBs are more likely to prioritize international diversification, actively seeking new markets to insulate themselves from regional shocks.

This confidence extends to hiring. While a majority (56.7%) plan to maintain current employment levels, a significant 22.7% intend to expand their workforce, betting that investments in talent and technology will drive productivity gains. This bullish outlook on sales and employment from the SMB sector provides a powerful engine for economic stability and growth from the ground up.

The Shifting Map of Global Opportunity

The Gedeth study also paints a picture of a world in flux, with traditional centers of economic power facing new challengers. The Americas currently lead the world in optimism, with 60% of businesses there expecting growth. This is spearheaded by sentiment in both the USA and, perhaps surprisingly, Venezuela, where expectations of a rebound from a low economic base may be fueling high hopes.

However, the report contains a crucial warning for the United States. While optimism among existing businesses is high, the nation's appeal to new international entrants is reportedly waning. The study notes that increasing "policy volatility" is deterring professionals and investors, turning the U.S. into a market that many are now hesitant to enter. This suggests that a lack of political and regulatory predictability can tarnish even the most powerful economy's attractiveness.

Elsewhere, the picture is equally complex. The United Kingdom is bogged down in what the report calls "profound pessimism from entrenched trends." The outlook in the broader EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region soured significantly after the Iran-US-Israel war. Yet, Europe as a continent remains highly attractive, with 58% of global respondents viewing it favorably, particularly its thriving Technology and ICT sector.

Beyond 'China+1': The Rise of the 'China+N' Strategy

Underpinning the strategic shifts identified in the report is the widespread adoption of a more sophisticated approach to supply chain management: the "China+N" strategy. For years, businesses sought to de-risk their reliance on Chinese manufacturing by adding a single alternative location—the "China+1" model. The cascading crises of the 2020s have proven that model insufficient.

Today, companies are building genuinely resilient networks by diversifying across multiple (N) countries. This is a direct response to the primary threats of geopolitical instability and tariffs. The goal is no longer just cost efficiency, but a robust and flexible global footprint that can withstand shocks from any single region. This strategic evolution involves a combination of nearshoring (moving production closer to home markets), friendshoring (relocating to politically allied nations), and regionalization of supply chains.

This trend is creating new economic hubs. The report notes that the acceleration of "China+N" is boosting investment in proximate manufacturing centers, such as the Northern Triangle nations in the Americas and Spain in Europe, which are becoming attractive alternatives for serving key markets. This fundamental rewiring of global trade routes is being enabled by the top opportunities businesses are seizing: the power of AI and digitalization (56.8%) to manage complex networks, and the strategic entry into new markets (46.5%) to fuel diversified growth.

Ultimately, the Gedeth report suggests that the era of simple, globalized trade has been replaced by a more complex, multi-polar reality. Businesses are no longer just participants in the global economy; they are becoming its most adaptive architects, building a more resilient and distributed commercial world in response to the very fragmentation that threatens it.