Crowded Skies: Aviation Safety Report Warns of Rising Mid-Air Collision Risk

ALEXANDRIA, Va. – February 17, 2026 – The Flight Safety Foundation (FSF) has issued a grave warning about the escalating dangers in the airspace around major airports, where an increasingly complex mix of commercial airliners, military aircraft, helicopters, and drones is creating a volatile environment. The warning coincides with the release of the foundation's 2025 Safety Report, which paints a sobering picture: while the total number of airliner accidents declined last year, the number of fatalities tragically surged.

The report highlights that increasing operational complexity and growing demand from both traditional and new airspace users are placing unprecedented pressure on the global aviation safety ecosystem. "This is not a localized issue; it is a rising global safety challenge as aircraft in the military, commercial, general aviation, and rotorcraft sectors, converge near high-density terminals alongside drones and similar new entrants," said Foundation President and CEO Dr. Hassan Shahidi in a statement. The FSF is calling for an urgent response built on clear standards, robust oversight, and decisive leadership to manage the growing threat.

According to data from the Foundation's Aviation Safety Network (ASN), 2025 saw 101 airliner accidents, down from 140 the previous year. However, the 12 fatal accidents that occurred resulted in over 400 deaths among passengers and crew, plus another 33 people on the ground—a significant increase from the 268 fatalities recorded in 2024.

A Tragic Reminder: The Collision Over Washington

The starkest example of this rising risk, and a focal point of the FSF report, was the catastrophic mid-air collision near Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport (DCA) on January 29, 2025. The accident, which involved a PSA Airlines regional jet and a U.S. Army helicopter, claimed the lives of all 67 people aboard both aircraft.

An exhaustive investigation by the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) concluded that the probable cause was the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA) flawed airspace design, which placed a helicopter route in dangerously close proximity to a runway approach path. The NTSB's findings were damning, citing the FAA's failure to review its helicopter routes, act on recommendations to mitigate risk, and an overreliance on an unreliable see-and-avoid visual separation strategy, especially in a high-workload environment at night.

The NTSB report also identified a cascade of contributing factors, including an air traffic control team that lost situational awareness under high workload, limitations in collision-avoidance technology on both aircraft, and a lack of clear guidance on route altitudes. Following the investigation, the NTSB issued 33 recommendations to the FAA and eight to the U.S. Army, leading the FAA to permanently ban helicopter flights on the specific routes around the airport.

A Pattern of Risk Across the Nation

The tragedy over Washington is not an isolated concern but rather a symptom of a systemic, nationwide problem. Aviation safety experts warn that similar conditions exist at other major hubs across the country, creating a pattern of unacceptable risk.

In a striking warning issued in January 2026, the NTSB declared that Hollywood Burbank Airport (KBUR) in California could be the site of the next mid-air collision. The agency cited six near-misses in the past five years in the busy, compact airspace shared with the nearby Van Nuys Airport, which has a high volume of helicopter traffic. In response, the FAA has taken steps to lower the traffic pattern altitude for Van Nuys to reduce potential conflicts.

Other areas of concern include Las Vegas, where frequent air tour helicopter routes intersect with commercial flight paths, and El Paso, where a sudden airspace closure in February 2026 highlighted friction between civilian air traffic and military drone testing operations. These incidents underscore the growing challenge of deconflicting airspace shared by a diverse and expanding array of aircraft with different capabilities and missions.

A System Operating at its Limits

The core of the problem, as outlined by the FSF, is an aviation system struggling to keep pace with rapid change. Air traffic control infrastructure, originally designed for a less crowded and more homogenous fleet, is being strained by the sheer volume and variety of modern air traffic.

"A system operating near its limits has less margin to absorb variability, disruptions, and surprises," Dr. Shahidi noted. This pressure falls squarely on the shoulders of pilots and air traffic controllers, who must navigate this complex environment daily. The NTSB's investigation into the DCA crash highlighted how high workload and misprioritization of duties can lead to a critical breakdown in situational awareness.

Technological gaps also persist. The FSF report calls for modernized, interoperable surveillance and communication systems to ensure all aircraft, manned and unmanned, are visible to each other and to controllers. While technologies like Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) allow aircraft to electronically broadcast their position, the NTSB has pushed for wider adoption of systems that not only transmit but also receive this data to give pilots a complete picture of surrounding traffic.

Forging a Path to Safer Skies

In response to the growing crisis, the Flight Safety Foundation has launched an international task force to develop a "Global Action Plan for the Prevention of Airborne Conflict." The initiative seeks to bring together regulators, manufacturers, and operators from all sectors to establish a cohesive strategy for managing the crowded skies of the future.

The foundation's recommendations are clear: reducing risk requires a multi-faceted approach. This includes better civil-military coordination, redesigning airspace where necessary, establishing clear deconfliction standards, and strengthening the global safety learning cycle through transparent investigations and data sharing.

A key part of the solution will be the integration of new technologies like Unmanned Aircraft Systems Traffic Management (UTM). These systems are being developed to act as a parallel air traffic control network for drones, allowing them to operate safely at low altitudes while providing data feeds to traditional ATC to prevent conflicts with other aircraft. "Managing that convergence requires shared accountability: clear procedures, interoperable equipage, data-driven oversight, and decisive action on recurring risk signals," Shahidi stated. The call to action is clear: without immediate and coordinated global action, the risk of another tragedy looms large in our increasingly congested skies.