Chedraui Charts Dual Path for 2026 Amid Cross-Border Headwinds

MEXICO CITY – January 12, 2026 – Grupo Comercial Chedraui today announced a bifurcated strategy for 2026, unveiling ambitious expansion plans in its home market of Mexico while preparing for a challenging environment in the United States, where it will lean heavily on operational efficiencies to navigate economic and political pressures.

In its official guidance for the fiscal year, the retail behemoth (BMV: CHDRAUI B) projected robust growth in Mexico, with total sales expected to climb between 8.0% and 9.0%. In contrast, its U.S. operations are forecast to see more modest total sales growth of 2.0% to 3.0% in dollar terms. The divergence highlights the company's nuanced approach to two distinct markets, balancing aggressive expansion at home with a focus on margin protection and cost control abroad.

At the core of its strategy is a significant organic expansion, with plans to open a total of 152 new stores across both countries. The company also signaled a strong focus on profitability, estimating a consolidated improvement in its EBITDA margin of 15 to 35 basis points, with the U.S. division expected to be the primary driver of this enhancement.

A Tale of Two Markets

Chedraui's 2026 outlook paints a picture of two very different operational landscapes. For its Mexican retail division, the company anticipates a stable economic environment comparable to 2025, a year in which it consistently outperformed the market. Through the first three quarters of 2025, Chedraui Mexico extended its streak of surpassing the same-store sales growth reported by the national retail association, ANTAD, for 21 consecutive quarters. The 2026 guidance builds on this momentum, forecasting same-store sales growth of 3.0% to 4.0%.

This confidence is underpinned by a massive expansion plan within Mexico, where Chedraui intends to open 147 new stores. The strategy employs a multi-format approach to deepen market penetration, including 9 large-format Tienda Chedraui stores, 7 mid-sized Super Chedraui locations, and a significant push into the convenience sector with 130 new small-format Supercito stores.

In the United States, the narrative is one of cautious optimism and strategic adaptation. The company directly addressed a key headwind, stating that a “stricter immigration policy will continue to impact same-store sales, at least during the first half of the year.” This forecast is rooted in recent experience; in the third quarter of 2025, Chedraui USA reported that stricter immigration enforcement negatively affected customer traffic, particularly at its El Super and Fiesta banners, which primarily serve Hispanic communities. Consequently, the guidance for U.S. same-store sales growth is a more subdued 1.0% to 2.0%, with the company expecting more stability in the latter half of the year.

The Efficiency Imperative

With external pressures mounting, Chedraui is turning inward to bolster its financial performance. The company's plan to improve its consolidated EBITDA margin hinges on a disciplined focus on operational efficiency, a strategy critical for offsetting challenges on both sides of the border.

In Mexico, the primary challenge is internal. The government's recent approval of a 13% increase in the general minimum wage for 2026 presents a significant headwind for labor costs across the retail sector. Chedraui's guidance states that the “continuity of the internal operational efficiency plan will be able to mitigate the pressure on expenses” from these rising costs. This plan is expected to keep the EBITDA margin for Retail Mexico relatively stable, with a projected change of 0 to 10 basis points.

Meanwhile, the U.S. division is poised to become the company’s engine for margin growth. Chedraui USA is projected to deliver an impressive 30 to 60 basis point improvement in its EBITDA margin. This enhancement is largely attributed to two key factors: the benefits from the now fully operational Rancho Cucamonga Distribution Center (RCDC) and a broader containment of operating expenses.

The RCDC, a massive consolidated facility in California, completed its complex migration process in mid-2025, unifying the supply chains of the El Super and Smart & Final banners from five legacy centers. While the transition incurred one-off costs in early 2025, by the third quarter, the company reported that increased supply chain efficiencies from the new center were already helping to offset the negative sales leverage caused by immigration-related traffic declines. The 2026 guidance confirms that the company expects this powerful new logistical hub to be a primary contributor to its profitability throughout the year.

Strategic Expansion Continues

Despite the headwinds, Chedraui is not slowing its long-term growth trajectory. The planned opening of 152 new stores represents a significant capital investment and a clear statement of intent to capture further market share. The 2025 capital expenditure plan, which allocated approximately 3.4% of consolidated sales to expansion and maintenance, provides a benchmark for the level of investment likely required to execute the 2026 plan.

In Mexico, the overwhelming focus on the Supercito format—accounting for nearly 90% of new openings—signals a strategic pivot towards convenience and urban density. This allows the company to rapidly increase its footprint in neighborhoods and locations not suited for its larger supermarket formats, competing more directly with convenience store chains.

The U.S. expansion, though smaller in scale, is highly targeted. The addition of four new El Super stores and one new Fiesta location reinforces Chedraui's commitment to its core demographic in the U.S. Hispanic market. By expanding the banners most affected by recent traffic declines, the company is demonstrating confidence in the long-term viability of its brand and its ability to serve these communities effectively.

As Chedraui moves into 2026, its guidance reveals a sophisticated and adaptable strategy. The company is leveraging its strength and momentum in Mexico for aggressive physical growth while simultaneously fortifying its U.S. operations with powerful internal efficiencies to weather external storms. For investors and competitors alike, Chedraui's 2026 playbook demonstrates a calculated blend of bold expansion and disciplined operational control, setting a clear course for the year ahead.