Aon's New Tool Fuses Data and Sentiment to Measure Global Risk

DUBLIN – January 15, 2026 – In an era defined by volatility and complex, interconnected threats, global professional services firm Aon plc today unveiled a new framework designed to help businesses look beyond traditional metrics. The firm has launched Aon's Resilience Quotient, a data-driven tool developed in collaboration with analytics giant Gallup, that uniquely integrates public sentiment with proprietary risk and human capital data.

The initiative responds to what Aon describes as a critical blind spot in corporate decision-making: in a world of increasing populism and fragmented information, quantitative data alone is no longer sufficient. By layering subjective public sentiment over objective risk analysis, the Resilience Quotient aims to provide leaders with a more holistic portfolio view, turning uncertainty into actionable insight and helping businesses move from a reactive to a proactive stance on building resilience.

Beyond the Balance Sheet: Quantifying Sentiment

At the core of the Resilience Quotient is a novel methodology that synthesizes three distinct data streams: Aon's own proprietary Risk Capital and Human Capital analytics, and over two decades of public sentiment data from Gallup's World Poll, which covers 140 countries.

This fusion of hard numbers and human perception is designed to function as an early warning system. It can reveal where negative public sentiment might signal hidden operational risks, even when fundamental economic indicators appear strong. Conversely, it can highlight where positive sentiment and public trust might create unforeseen opportunities for investment and growth.

"When making decisions around investment, workforce or managing geopolitical risk, a portfolio view is far superior to a siloed perspective," said Greg Case, president and CEO of Aon, in the announcement. "Understanding sentiment can be an opportunity signal or an early warning. Leaders who are limited to only some of the relevant metrics risk missing the signals that matter most."

The framework is built to analyze how risks compound across four interconnected global megatrends: Trade, Technology, Weather, and Workforce. By mapping the intricate relationships between these forces—such as how trade disputes can amplify technology supply chain risks or how climate pressures influence workforce migration—the tool provides leaders with a clearer understanding of the trade-offs they face.

Navigating the New Global Megatrends

To demonstrate the tool's practical application, Aon released case studies addressing urgent issues facing the 2026 global economy. One study tackles the explosive growth of AI and the corresponding demand for data centers, a sector projected to see nearly $1.3 trillion in global investment by 2030.

The analysis reveals that resilience varies dramatically at a sub-national level. It identifies Iowa as the most resilient U.S. destination for data center development, not merely for its low risk profile, but for its combination of strong trade and weather resilience coupled with high levels of public trust and institutional confidence. According to Aon, Iowa's resilience-to-risk balance is roughly double the national median.

"Aon's Resilience Quotient shows that Iowa's resilience–risk balance is roughly twice the national median, demonstrating how governance quality, institutional confidence and preparedness materially shape long-term infrastructure outcomes," explained Joe Peiser, CEO of Commercial Risk Solutions at Aon. This insight is particularly relevant as the high energy and water demands of data centers raise public and regulatory scrutiny, making social license a critical, if often unmeasured, asset.

Another case study examines the impact of AI adoption on the workforce. Aligning with findings from institutions like the World Economic Forum and McKinsey, the Resilience Quotient highlights that technology alone does not guarantee success. The key differentiators are human factors: workforce engagement, trust in leadership, and institutional readiness to adapt. "These insights help create the conditions for early‑career employees to build the skills and confidence they need -- so instead of losing a generation of talent, we cultivate one that is more capable and resilient than ever," noted Lisa Stevens, Aon's chief administrative officer.

A New Lens on Societal and Geopolitical Challenges

Perhaps the most ambitious application of the Resilience Quotient extends beyond corporate boardrooms to address complex geopolitical and humanitarian crises. With over 120 million people currently displaced by conflict, climate events, and systemic crises, the tool offers a new way to model and finance solutions.

A case study focusing on the Venezuelan migration crisis illustrates the trade-offs between two approaches: investing resources at the source in Venezuela to mitigate institutional collapse and food insecurity, or directing those funds to a more stable host country like Colombia, which is absorbing millions of displaced people.

By quantifying elements of institutional trust and societal stability, the framework provides a data-driven lens for policymakers and NGOs to weigh these difficult decisions. "Forced displacement results from extreme weather and man-made disasters like conflict and economic failure," said Bridget Gainer, chief public affairs officer at Aon. "If we could leverage the forecasting and financial capability of insurance to better predict and more quickly mitigate the impact of this volatility, we could help create conditions that allow populations to remain and rebuild in their home countries."

The Competitive Edge in a Volatile World

While competitors like Marsh McLennan and Willis Towers Watson offer their own sophisticated enterprise risk management frameworks, Aon is betting that the explicit integration of public sentiment will be its key differentiator. The move is seen by some financial analysts as a strategic play to strengthen the firm's high-margin advisory pipeline if the tool gains traction with its target audience of C-suite executives and global leaders.

Powering the framework is a real-time analytics platform built by Quantum Rise, a Chicago-based AI startup. This AI engine provides the deep visibility into evolving risk signals that the system promises, merging human and machine intelligence to deliver continuous insights.

Aon and Gallup are set to present their findings at the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, signaling their intent to position the Resilience Quotient as a vital tool for navigating the global agenda. The collaboration seeks to transform confidence—or a lack thereof—from an abstract concept into a measurable, actionable metric.

"Resilience is not a single blueprint, it's the way systems mitigate, adapt and transform under pressure," said Joe Daly, managing partner at Gallup. "Aon's Resilience Quotient functions as a pressure gauge, surfacing the trade‑offs and early signals that help leaders strengthen resilience where it matters most."