Market Pulse

Event summary

• Hydro-Québec is appealing a Régie de l'énergie decision preventing essential grid maintenance.
• The Régie de l'énergie rejected Hydro-Québec’s 2026-2028 rate application, resulting in a $450 million loss over three years.
• The Régie based its decision solely on past maintenance costs, disregarding Hydro-Québec’s future investment plans and Action Plan 2035.
• Hydro-Québec also appealed a separate decision denying vegetation control costs as investments, impacting business customer rate predictability.

The big picture

What we're watching

Governance Dynamics

The Superior Court's ruling will establish a precedent for the Régie de l'énergie's authority versus Hydro-Québec's strategic plans, potentially impacting future rate applications and investment decisions.

Regulatory Headwinds

Further regulatory challenges are likely if Hydro-Québec continues to prioritize long-term infrastructure investment, creating uncertainty for investors and potentially impacting the company's ability to meet its Action Plan 2035 goals.

Execution Risk

The inability to adequately fund preventative maintenance will likely lead to increased emergency repairs and service disruptions, damaging Hydro-Québec’s reputation and potentially triggering customer attrition.

Event summary

• Akeso (9926.HK) received acceptance for review of its supplemental New Drug Application (sNDA) for gumokimab (AK111) for active ankylosing spondylitis (AS) by the NMPA’s CDE.
• China’s AS patient population is estimated at approximately 4 million.
• This is the second NDA acceptance for gumokimab, following a prior acceptance for psoriasis treatment in January 2025.
• The acceptance is based on positive Phase III clinical trial results (AK111-303) demonstrating efficacy and symptom alleviation.

The big picture

What we're watching

Regulatory Timeline

The speed of NMPA review will be a key indicator of Akeso’s prospects in the Chinese market, particularly given the competitive landscape for biologics.

Commercialization

The success of gumokimab will depend on Akeso’s ability to secure reimbursement and distribution within China’s complex healthcare system.

Pipeline Momentum

Akeso’s continued advancement of its broader pipeline, including bispecific antibodies like AK139 and AK152, will be crucial for long-term growth and diversification.

Event summary

• Approximately one-third (33%) of Canadian businesses plan a major acquisition within the next 18 months.
• Private equity-backed companies show a slightly higher acquisition intent, at 36%.
• The Canadian government's nation-building agenda allocates $115.2 billion over five years, aiming to stimulate over $1 trillion in private investment.
• KPMG Corporate Finance Inc. Canada ranked as the No. 1 M&A advisor in 2025, advising on over 280 deals.

The big picture

What we're watching

Sector Focus

The concentration of M&A activity in sectors like infrastructure, energy, and critical minerals will likely intensify competition and potentially inflate asset valuations, requiring disciplined dealmaking.

Private Equity

The continued presence of private equity funds and family offices with substantial dry powder suggests a sustained level of deal activity, but their ability to deploy capital effectively will depend on identifying undervalued or strategically compelling targets.

Interest Rates

While a steady interest rate environment is currently supportive, any significant shifts in monetary policy could rapidly alter financing conditions and impact deal feasibility, creating a bifurcated market.

Event summary

• Global Power Solutions Corp. signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Northern Hydrogen and Energy Ltd. to jointly develop and commercialize modular hydrogen-based power systems.
• The LOI grants Global Power the potential for a non-exclusive, worldwide, perpetual license to commercialize the Modular H₂ Reactor systems, leveraging existing licenses from ModeOne Manpower Systems Corp. and MVP Systems.
• Global Power plans to fund and construct an 80kW commercial demonstration facility within 12 months, with a budget of CAD $3.5 million.
• The agreement outlines deployment targets of 100 MW by 2028, 1,000 MW by 2030, and 2,000 MW by 2035.

The big picture

What we're watching

Execution Risk

The success of the 80kW demonstration facility is critical; failure to validate the technology could jeopardize future funding and partnerships.

Regulatory Landscape

Securing necessary regulatory approvals for scaling deployments to 1,000 MW and beyond will be a significant hurdle, potentially impacting the timeline outlined in the LOI.

Manufacturing Capacity

Global Power’s ability to establish and scale manufacturing operations in British Columbia, while managing component lead times, will be a key determinant of its ability to meet ambitious deployment targets.

Event summary

• KKR is increasing its ownership stake in Altavair and AV AirFinance, funding the investment from its balance sheet.
• The strategic partnership between KKR and Altavair began in 2018, with KKR committing over $5 billion to aircraft leasing and lending.
• Altavair CEO Steve Rimmer highlights the importance of KKR’s expertise in the platform’s growth.
• Matthew Hoesley, Altavair's Chief Commercial Officer, is being promoted to President & Chief Commercial Officer.
• Andrew Carpenter, Head of Tax & Accounting, will become Altavair's Chief Financial Officer.

The big picture

What we're watching

Operational Integration

The expanded role of Matthew Hoesley and the new CFO suggest a deeper integration of KKR’s strategies into Altavair’s operations; the success of this integration will be key to realizing synergies.

Market Volatility

While aircraft assets are considered resilient, a significant downturn in global air travel could challenge Altavair’s projections and impact KKR’s returns.

Capital Deployment

The pace at which Altavair deploys KKR’s capital will be a key indicator of its ability to identify and execute on attractive aircraft leasing and financing opportunities.

Event summary

• Sungrow provided a 110kW inverter and Energy Aware installed a 99.44kW rooftop solar system at the redeveloped Toorak Park Pavilion in Melbourne.
• The project, part of a $17 million master plan, is expected to generate 127,860 kWh of clean energy annually and reduce CO₂ emissions by 101 tonnes.
• The pavilion serves three sporting clubs and includes upgraded facilities, recognized as a finalist in AFL Victoria's 2025 Best Community Football Facilities Project Awards.
• Energy Aware, a large Australian EPC company, partnered with Sungrow on the installation.

The big picture

What we're watching

Project Scale

While this project is relatively small, Sungrow's continued involvement in Australian public infrastructure projects signals a strategic push into localized, community-focused deployments.

EPC Dynamics

The reliance on Energy Aware as a key EPC partner suggests a potential shift towards leveraging specialized local expertise for project delivery, rather than full vertical integration.

Market Penetration

The recognition from AFL Victoria indicates that Sungrow’s brand is gaining traction within the Australian sporting sector, which could open doors for further opportunities in similar community-facing facilities.

Event summary

• The European Medicines Agency (EMA) validated a Type II Variation application for ENHERTU (trastuzumab deruxtecan) in combination with pertuzumab for first-line treatment of HER2 positive metastatic breast cancer.
• The application is based on data from the DESTINY-Breast09 Phase 3 trial, presented at ASCO 2025 and published in The New England Journal of Medicine.
• DESTINY-Breast09 demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) compared to the standard THP regimen.
• ENHERTU in combination with pertuzumab is already approved in the U.S. for this indication.

The big picture

What we're watching

Regulatory Scrutiny

The EMA's review process will be critical; any unexpected requests for additional data could delay or alter the approval timeline, impacting Daiichi Sankyo and AstraZeneca’s revenue projections.

Market Adoption

The speed with which oncologists adopt the new combination therapy will depend on reimbursement decisions and physician familiarity, potentially impacting peak sales forecasts.

Competitive Landscape

The success of ENHERTU plus pertuzumab will likely spur increased R&D investment in other HER2-targeted therapies, intensifying competition within the metastatic breast cancer treatment space.

Event summary

• Deakin University was named 'Best Foreign University for Sports and Physical Education in India' at the Global Sports Education Convention (G-SEC) 2026.
• The award was presented by the Confederation of Sports and Recreation Industry (CSRI).
• Deakin University has maintained a #1 ranking for its sport science school for five consecutive years and is ranked 14th globally for sports-related subjects.
• The university has operated in India since 1994 and recently established a branch campus at GIFT City, Gujarat.

The big picture

What we're watching

Market Penetration

The award’s impact on student enrollment and market share in India’s growing sports education sector warrants monitoring, particularly given the competitive landscape.

Regulatory Alignment

How Deakin’s GIFT City campus navigates evolving Indian regulations and accreditation standards will be a key indicator of long-term success.

Partnership Sustainability

The longevity and depth of Deakin's partnerships with Indian institutions and government bodies will determine the university's ability to expand its offerings and influence policy.

Event summary

• Oshkosh Defense will showcase its Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) at the International Armoured Vehicles (IAV) Conference in Farnborough, England, January 20-22, 2026.
• Over 24,000 JLTVs have been produced for the U.S. and allied forces.
• Oshkosh is the sole OEM authorized to sell JLTVs directly to allied nations via Direct Commercial Sales (DCS).
• The JLTV's open architecture facilitates rapid integration of mission systems and weapons.

The big picture

What we're watching

Geopolitical Risk

Increased global instability and ongoing conflicts will likely drive continued demand for the JLTV, but also expose Oshkosh to potential supply chain disruptions and political volatility.

Contract Dynamics

The reliance on Direct Commercial Sales (DCS) exposes Oshkosh to shifts in government procurement policies and potential trade restrictions, which could impact future sales volume.

Competitive Landscape

While currently unchallenged, the emergence of alternative light tactical vehicles from other manufacturers could erode Oshkosh’s market share and necessitate further investment in JLTV modernization.

Event summary

• ComEd submitted its second multi-year grid plan (MYGP) to the Illinois Commerce Commission (ICC) covering 2028-2031.
• The plan outlines $13 billion in planned investments across nine major commercial projects and an estimated 2,200 new jobs in the ComEd region.
• ComEd projects average residential electricity costs will be 1.47% of household income in 2028 and 1.56% by 2031.
• The ICC will make a decision on the MYGP by the end of 2026, following an 11-month review process.

The big picture

What we're watching

Regulatory Risk

The ICC’s approval process and any conditions imposed will significantly shape the scope and cost of ComEd’s grid investments, potentially impacting future rate filings.

Load Growth

The plan's ability to accommodate the projected surge in electricity demand at 70+ substations will be a key indicator of ComEd's operational agility and infrastructure planning effectiveness.

Cost Management

Whether ComEd can maintain affordability targets while executing a substantial investment plan will be critical, especially given broader inflationary pressures and potential customer pushback.

Event summary

• Canada and China have announced a new strategic partnership, significantly altering Canada's trade and industrial strategy.
• The agreement reduces Canada's surtax on Chinese-made electric vehicles (EVs), potentially allowing tens of thousands of subsidized vehicles to enter the Canadian market.
• Canada is offering temporary tariff reductions on canola and seafood products in exchange for concessions, a move criticized as insufficient compensation.
• The Canadian Labour Congress (CLC) warns the deal risks undermining Canada's domestic auto industry and jeopardizing jobs.

The big picture

What we're watching

Auto Industry Impact

The extent to which Canada's domestic auto manufacturers can adapt to increased competition from heavily subsidized Chinese EVs will determine the long-term viability of the sector and the potential for job losses.

US-Canada Relations

The agreement's impact on Canada-US trade relations, particularly regarding auto tariffs and North American cooperation, warrants close monitoring, as it could trigger retaliatory measures or further trade disputes.

Labor Response

The Canadian Labour Congress's (CLC) continued advocacy and potential actions to protect workers' rights and job security will shape the political and economic fallout of this agreement.

Event summary

• Life Time announced a 2026 calendar of 22 owned and produced athletic events across 10 states.
• The events include a diverse range of disciplines: mountain biking, gravel cycling, road running, and trail running.
• The events collectively attract over 90,000 annual participants.
• Life Time offers a 'charity athlete program' allowing participants to bypass registration lotteries by fundraising for the Life Time Foundation.

The big picture

What we're watching

Brand Loyalty

The exclusive member registration for these events reinforces Life Time's strategy of bundling services and increasing customer stickiness, but the reliance on membership for event participation could limit broader market penetration.

Geographic Expansion

While the events span 10 states, Life Time’s continued focus on the Midwest and West Coast suggests limited expansion into other regions, potentially missing out on growth opportunities in the East and South.

Charity Program

The success of the charity athlete program will be a key indicator of Life Time’s ability to leverage social impact for both fundraising and participant acquisition, and whether this model can be scaled effectively.

Event summary

• Defiance ETFs, a brand under Tidal Financial Group, is liquidating eight ETFs.
• The funds being closed include leveraged ETFs focused on PLTR, SMCI, HOOD, ETH, AMD, HIMS, and a 'Trillion Dollar Club' index, as well as a short LLY ETF.
• The final trading day is January 26, 2026, with liquidation occurring on January 30, 2026.
• The decision is framed as part of an ongoing review of Defiance’s product lineup and a commitment to focused strategies.

The big picture

What we're watching

Product Rationalization

The closure signals a broader trend of ETF issuers reassessing product offerings, particularly in the leveraged space, as market volatility and investor preferences evolve. Further consolidation within the ETF landscape is likely.

AUM Impact

The AUM in these eight funds will be redistributed, potentially benefiting other ETF providers or alternative investment vehicles. Tracking where this capital flows will reveal investor sentiment shifts.

Tidal Strategy

Tidal Financial Group's continued strategy of providing ETF development services will be tested as Defiance’s product line shrinks. The firm’s ability to attract new issuers and innovative product ideas will be crucial for maintaining its position.

Event summary

• Pan Global Resources Inc. has contracted ICP Securities Inc. to provide automated market making services, utilizing ICP’s proprietary ‘ICP Premium’ algorithm.
• The initial agreement spans four months, with automatic monthly renewals unless either party provides 30 days’ notice.
• ICP will receive a monthly fee of C$7,500 plus applicable taxes for its services.
• ICP and its clients may potentially acquire an interest in Pan Global’s securities in the future.
• ICP is an arm’s length party and its market making activity is intended to correct temporary imbalances in share supply and demand.

The big picture

What we're watching

Liquidity Impact

The effectiveness of ICP’s market making in stabilizing Pan Global’s share price and trading volume will be a key indicator of the agreement’s value, particularly given the company’s listing on multiple exchanges.

Regulatory Scrutiny

The TSX Venture Exchange’s oversight of this arrangement, and any potential for increased scrutiny of automated market making practices, warrants monitoring.

Future Investment

Whether ICP or its clients ultimately take a stake in Pan Global will signal their confidence in the company’s long-term prospects and exploration potential in the Iberian Pyrite Belt.

Event summary

• Innovation Beverage Group (IBG) received a notice from Nasdaq regarding noncompliance with listing rules.
• The noncompliance stems from IBG failing to hold its annual shareholder meeting within twelve months of the fiscal year end (December 31, 2024).
• IBG has 45 days to submit a compliance plan and aims to hold the meeting by March 31, 2026.
• Nasdaq may grant an exception of up to 180 days if IBG's compliance plan is accepted.

The big picture

What we're watching

Governance Dynamics

The speed and thoroughness of IBG’s compliance plan submission will signal the board’s commitment to corporate governance best practices and its ability to address operational shortcomings.

Listing Risk

Whether Nasdaq accepts IBG’s compliance plan and grants an extension will be a key indicator of the company’s potential for delisting, impacting investor confidence and share price.

Operational Efficiency

The underlying cause of the delayed shareholder meeting suggests potential operational inefficiencies that could impact future execution and financial performance beyond just compliance.

Event summary

• MetaVia Inc. closed a $9.3 million underwritten public offering of Class A and Class B Units.
• The offering included the full exercise of the underwriter’s over-allotment option, comprising 3,005,574 shares and associated warrants.
• The offering was priced at $3.10 per share, accompanied by Series C and Series D warrants.
• The warrants, if fully exercised, could generate an additional $28.0 million in gross proceeds.
• Proceeds will primarily fund the clinical development of DA-1726, a novel obesity treatment.

The big picture

What we're watching

Clinical Milestones

The timing and results of the Phase 1b Part III clinical trial for DA-1726 will be critical, as a positive readout triggers the callability of a significant tranche of warrants, potentially diluting existing shareholders.

Financial Runway

Given the ongoing clinical development costs, MetaVia’s ability to extend its financial runway beyond the current proceeds will depend on continued investor interest and potential partnerships.

Warrant Dynamics

The exercise or non-exercise of the outstanding warrants will significantly impact MetaVia’s capital structure and future financing needs, creating potential dilution or upside for investors.

Event summary

• Daniel N. Cunningham, a founding board member of Community West Bancshares, will retire on May 20, 2026, after 46 years of service.
• Cunningham previously served as Chairman (1998-2015), Lead Independent Director (2015-2019), and Vice Chairman (2019-2024).
• He will transition to the role of Director Emeritus, becoming only the fourth person to receive this honor in the company’s history.
• Cunningham’s career also included roles in public accounting and as CFO of the Quinn Company, a Caterpillar dealer.

The big picture

What we're watching

Governance Dynamics

The appointment of Cunningham as Director Emeritus suggests a desire to retain his institutional knowledge, but the long-term impact on board dynamics and decision-making remains to be seen.

Succession Risk

With the departure of a founding member who has guided the company through multiple economic cycles, Community West Bancshares faces a succession risk and must ensure a smooth transition of expertise.

Cultural Continuity

The emphasis on Cunningham’s role in fostering a relationship-based culture highlights its importance to Community West Bancshares; the company must actively work to preserve this culture as leadership evolves.

Event summary

• A Catalight Research Institute study analyzed data from 725 autistic children receiving Applied Behavior Analysis (ABA) therapy in the U.S. over one year.
• The study found no correlation between increased ABA therapy hours (up to 40/week) and improved adaptive behavior or broader wellbeing outcomes.
• Baseline communication skills were identified as a stronger predictor of outcomes than treatment hours.
• The research, published in the Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders, challenges the common recommendation of 30-40 hours of ABA per week.
• Catalight, a network of over 16,000 practitioners serving 24,000 clients annually, is publishing this research.

The big picture

What we're watching

Guideline Revision

Professional organizations and regulatory bodies will likely re-evaluate current ABA therapy guidelines in light of this evidence, potentially leading to a shift away from high-hour recommendations.

Treatment Customization

Clinicians will increasingly emphasize individualized treatment plans, moving beyond standardized hour prescriptions to focus on specific patient needs and baseline abilities.

Reimbursement Models

Payers and insurance companies may adjust reimbursement models for ABA therapy, potentially reducing coverage for high-hour interventions and prioritizing more targeted approaches.

Event summary

• Genmab announced topline results from the Phase 3 EPCORE DLBCL-1 trial evaluating epcoritamab (EPKINLY®/TEPKINLY®) as monotherapy.
• The trial demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.60-0.92).
• Overall survival (OS) showed a HR of 0.96 (95% CI: 0.77-1.20), failing to reach statistical significance.
• The study enrolled 483 patients with relapsed/refractory DLBCL ineligible for HDT-ASCT, comparing epcoritamab to standard chemotherapy regimens (R-GemOx, BR).

The big picture

What we're watching

Regulatory Approval

The engagement with regulatory authorities will be critical; the lack of statistical significance in OS could influence the speed and scope of potential approvals.

Clinical Trial Data

The full trial results, including detailed subgroup analyses, will reveal the impact of factors like the pandemic and newer therapies on the observed outcomes.

Pipeline Progression

The success of the EPCORE DLBCL-2 and EPCORE DLBCL-4 trials, particularly the combination with R-CHOP, will be key to establishing epcoritamab’s broader role in DLBCL treatment.

Event summary

• A School Meals Accelerator has been launched by Germany's BMZ, Novo Nordisk Foundation, The Rockefeller Foundation, and the WFP, aiming to reach 100 million additional children by 2030.
• The initiative is seeded with $80 million from the founding partners, supplemented by contributions from France and the Global Partnership for Education.
• The Accelerator will provide technical assistance to countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean to strengthen national school meal programs.
• Global funding for school meals has nearly doubled since 2020, reaching $84 billion annually, with 99% now sourced from domestic budgets.
• The Accelerator builds upon the School Meals Coalition, which has already secured national commitments from 60 countries.

The big picture

What we're watching

Sustainability

The Accelerator's long-term funding model will be critical; reliance on philanthropic capital raises questions about scalability beyond the initial $80 million commitment.

Implementation

Success hinges on the Accelerator's ability to translate commitments from 60 countries into tangible, sustainable systems, which will require navigating complex local contexts and political landscapes.

Local Sourcing

The stated focus on locally sourced food presents a challenge given supply chain vulnerabilities and the need to build resilient agricultural systems in many target regions.