Texas Housing Market Shows Signs of Deceleration Amidst Regional Disparities
Event summary
- Texas home sales increased by a marginal 0.7% in Q1 2026 compared to Q1 2025.
- The statewide median home price declined 0.8% year-over-year, marking the first decrease in over a decade.
- While half of Texas metros experienced sales decreases, Abilene saw a 22.9% increase, and McAllen a 17.5% increase.
- Days on market increased to 80 days, and months of inventory rose to 5, indicating a shift towards a more balanced market.
The big picture
The Texas housing market, which experienced dramatic price appreciation in the early 2020s, is now exhibiting signs of deceleration and regional fragmentation. The statewide median price decline, coupled with the uneven sales performance across metros, signals a shift away from the broad-based boom of previous years. This suggests a more nuanced and localized approach to real estate investment and development is now necessary.
What we're watching
- Regional Divergence
- The stark contrast between metros like Abilene and McAllen and the larger cities suggests localized economic factors are increasingly outweighing statewide trends, requiring granular market analysis.
- Price Stabilization
- Whether the price decline represents a temporary correction or the beginning of a sustained downward trend will depend on the interplay of interest rates and new construction activity.
- Inventory Levels
- The pace at which active listings continue to rise will be a key indicator of whether the market can maintain its current balance between supply and demand, or if it will tip towards a buyer's market.
