Numerator's February CGPI Shows Inflation Reacceleration, Disproportionate Impact on Lower-Income and Gen Z Consumers

Event summary

  • Numerator's Consumer Goods Price Index (CGPI) for February 2026 shows a 0.26% month-over-month increase in prices for everyday goods, following a 0.24% decrease in January.
  • Year-over-year, prices are up 2.7%, indicating a reacceleration in inflation after several months of cooling.
  • Low-income and Gen Z consumers experienced higher inflation rates, with prices up 33.7% and 36.0% respectively since January 2018, compared to the 31.8% national average.
  • Regionally, the South and West census regions have seen higher inflation since 2018, while the Midwest has experienced stronger month-over-month inflation recently.

The big picture

Numerator's CGPI provides a real-time snapshot of consumer price trends, closely tracking the PCE Food & Beverage index with a 0.93 correlation since 2019. The data highlights the ongoing volatility in consumer goods prices, particularly for vulnerable demographics, and underscores the challenges in achieving price stability. The index's expansion to include income level, generation, and regional breakouts offers deeper insights into the disparate impacts of inflation across different consumer segments.

What we're watching

Inflation Trends
Whether the reacceleration in inflation will persist or if this is a temporary fluctuation.
Consumer Impact
How lower-income and Gen Z consumers will adapt to sustained higher prices for everyday goods.
Regional Disparities
The pace at which regional inflation differences will narrow or widen, particularly between the Midwest and other regions.