Numerator CPI Shows January Inflation Cools to 1.8% Year-Over-Year

Event summary

  • Numerator's January 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows a 0.23% month-over-month decline in prices for everyday goods, the first drop in nearly a year.
  • Year-over-year inflation for everyday household purchases stands at 1.8%, the lowest level since February 2025.
  • The Numerator CPI tracks approximately 20% of the consumption basket covered in the PCE price index, with a 0.93 correlation to the PCE Food and Beverage index since 2019.
  • The data is derived from verified transactions of 200,000 geographically and demographically representative U.S. households.

The big picture

Numerator’s January CPI data provides an early signal of cooling inflation in everyday consumer goods, offering a potential relief for consumers. The data’s close correlation with the PCE Food and Beverage index underscores its relevance for tracking retail price changes. As the market research industry evolves, Numerator’s ability to blend first-party data with advanced technology positions it as a key player in providing real-time insights into consumer behavior and inflation trends.

What we're watching

Inflation Trends
Whether the cooling inflation trend will persist in the coming months, particularly as it aligns with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ CPI release.
Consumer Behavior
How changes in consumer purchasing behavior, such as brand switching and downsizing, will impact retail price dynamics.
Data Reliability
The extent to which Numerator’s CPI can continue to serve as a reliable predictor of broader economic indicators like the PCE Food and Beverage index.