US Manufacturing Imports Surge Despite Tariffs, Reshoring Efforts Fail to Gain Traction
Event summary
- Kearney's 2026 Reshoring Index improved slightly to -91 from -115, but remains in negative territory.
- US manufacturing imports rose by 4.6% in 2025, hitting a four-year high.
- China's share of US manufacturing imports fell below 10%, losing $135 billion due to tariffs, while other Asian LCCRs gained $193 billion.
- US manufacturing capacity only grew by 1.5% despite a tripling of investment over the past four years.
The big picture
Despite significant investment and policy interventions, the US remains heavily reliant on imports, particularly in electronics and apparel. The shift of manufacturing from China to other Asian LCCRs highlights the persistent cost advantages in the region and the challenges of attracting manufacturing back to the US. This underscores a broader trend of complex geopolitical factors influencing global supply chains and the limitations of tariffs as a standalone reshoring tool.
What we're watching
- Cost Dynamics
- The continued cost advantage of Asian LCCRs, even with tariffs, will likely continue to draw manufacturing activity away from the US, hindering reshoring efforts.
- Investment Confidence
- Weakening investment confidence and uncertainty surrounding USMCA could significantly impact the pace of nearshoring to Mexico, preventing a sustained compounding growth trend.
- Policy Impact
- The effectiveness of future trade policies and tariffs will be crucial in determining whether the US can shift its reliance on Asian imports and bolster domestic manufacturing.
