Commercial Real Estate Bidding Convergence Signals Market Normalization
Event summary
- JLL's Global Bid Intensity Index shows bidding competitiveness across property sectors converging to a three-year low.
- The index, based on JLL's proprietary bidding data, indicates a more normalized market in 2026.
- Investment intensity has been consistent since October 2025, following a peak in bidding gains.
- The convergence is occurring despite an increase in the volume of investment opportunities available.
- Richard Bloxam, CEO of Capital Markets at JLL, attributes the stability to a more favorable macro environment.
The big picture
The convergence of bidding activity across property sectors suggests a maturing commercial real estate market, moving away from the sector-specific volatility seen since 2022. JLL’s index indicates that investors are demonstrating more balanced appetite and a willingness to consider a wider range of opportunities, supported by a more stable macroeconomic environment. This normalization, however, is predicated on the continued stability of interest rates and the ability of the global economy to absorb geopolitical shocks.
What we're watching
- Geopolitical Risk
- The ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a significant risk to the stability JLL cites, and its escalation could quickly disrupt the observed market normalization.
- Rent Growth
- The impact of weaker rent growth, particularly in the U.S. multi-family sector, will determine whether bidding competitiveness can be sustained across all property types.
- Trade Policy
- Continued uncertainty surrounding trade policy could limit the rebound in bidding competitiveness observed in the industrial & logistics sector.
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