U.S. Home Prices Turn Negative for First Time in Over a Decade
Event summary
- National house price growth turned negative year-over-year in February 2026, marking the first decline since 2012.
- Monthly house price growth was flat (0.0%) from January to February 2026.
- 23 of the top 30 U.S. markets tracked by First American Data & Analytics posted annual price declines.
- St. Louis and Anaheim, Calif. saw year-over-year increases in starter and mid-tier home prices.
- Oakland, Calif., Las Vegas, and Seattle recorded some of the largest annual declines in February 2026.
The big picture
The first year-over-year decline in national home prices since 2012 reflects a market that has flattened after years of rapid price gains. This cooling trend, coupled with rising household incomes and more inventory, suggests a more buyer-friendly spring season. However, local market conditions will dictate how prices respond during the peak buying months, with some regions continuing to post gains while others experience declines.
What we're watching
- Market Balance
- Whether the shift to negative price growth signals a more balanced housing market or the start of a broader downturn.
- Regional Variability
- How local supply and demand conditions will determine price responses during the peak buying months.
- Affordability Trends
- The pace at which rising household incomes and increased home inventory improve affordability for buyers.