Almonty Industries Valuation Boosted on Tungsten Price Surge, Expansion Plans
Event summary
- Diamond Equity Research released an issuer-sponsored update note on Almonty Industries, Inc. (ALM/AII/ASX:AII/ALI1).
- Almonty is expanding the Sangdong Tungsten Mine Phase II, targeting 460,000 MTU annual production by 2027.
- A US$129.4 million public offering in December 2025 bolstered Almonty’s cash position to $268.4 million.
- Diamond Equity Research reduced its discount rate to 7.0% and increased APT price forecasts to $2,275 and $2,160 for 2026E and 2027E, respectively.
- The update note’s revised valuation is $27.00 per share, contingent on successful execution.
The big picture
Almonty Industries is strategically positioned to capitalize on the rising demand for critical minerals, particularly tungsten, driven by defense spending and supply chain diversification efforts. The company’s expansion plans and recent funding round signal a significant shift towards scaled production, but its valuation is heavily reliant on sustained high prices and successful project execution. The reliance on a single research firm, particularly one compensated by the company, introduces a potential bias in the valuation assessment.
What we're watching
- Execution Risk
- The success of Almonty’s valuation hinges on the timely and cost-effective completion of the Sangdong Phase II expansion, which carries inherent geological and operational risks.
- Price Volatility
- The current record tungsten prices are driven by supply constraints and geopolitical factors; whether these conditions persist and support Almonty’s revenue projections remains to be seen.
- Competitive Landscape
- While Almonty aims to become a leading tungsten producer outside of China, increased competition from other non-Chinese sources could erode pricing power and impact margins.
Related topics