M&A Optimism Returns, But Deal Size Expectations Moderate

Event summary

  • Deloitte's 2026 M&A Trends Survey polled 1,500 corporate and private equity leaders in the U.S.
  • 90% of PE and 80% of corporate respondents anticipate increased deal volume in 2026.
  • Respondents expect a more measured increase in deal volume compared to late 2024, with 'significant increase' expectations down 16 points.
  • Private credit remains the preferred financing mechanism (47%), but cash usage is rising (40% in 2025 vs. 33% in 2024).

The big picture

Deloitte's survey reveals a cautious optimism among dealmakers, suggesting a rebound in M&A activity after a period of uncertainty. While confidence is returning, the tempered expectations for deal size and the persistent challenges of market volatility point to a more selective and strategic approach to dealmaking. The rise of private credit alongside increased cash usage highlights the evolving financing landscape and the need for flexibility in deal structuring.

What we're watching

Financing Shifts
The increased use of cash in M&A financing suggests a potential easing of liquidity constraints, but also indicates a cautious approach to debt-fueled acquisitions.
Deal Size
The moderation in expectations for 'significant' deal volume increases may signal a shift towards smaller, more targeted acquisitions, potentially impacting larger investment firms.
Macro Risks
The continued emphasis on 'uncertain market conditions' as a key challenge indicates that dealmakers will remain sensitive to macroeconomic factors and may delay or restructure transactions.