Farmers Dump Soybeans Amid U.S.-China Trade Thaw, Hoard Corn and Wheat
Event summary
- U.S. farmers aggressively sold soybeans in fall 2025 as prices rose post-U.S.-China trade truce, with commercial storage ownership jumping to 73.6% from 66.3% YoY.
- Corn and wheat farmers increased use of delayed pricing programs, leaving prices open amid depressed prices.
- Off-farm grain storage hit record levels, with farmers shifting soybeans and wheat to commercial storage to free up space for record corn harvest.
- Total U.S. corn stocks reached 13.3 billion bushels on Dec. 1, 2025, a 10% YoY increase, with on-farm storage up 13.5%.
- U.S. wheat stocks rose to 1.675 billion bushels, the highest in six years, with off-farm storage at 73.4%.
The big picture
The aggressive selling of soybeans reflects strategic shifts in farmer behavior amid improving trade relations, while the hoarding of corn and wheat signals cautious optimism for future price recoveries. The record storage levels highlight the structural challenges in managing supply chains during bumper harvests. CoBank's data underscores the delicate balance between market timing and storage capacity in the agricultural sector.
What we're watching
- Selling Pressure
- How future corn and wheat price increases will trigger heavier selling pressure compared to soybeans.
- Market Uncertainty
- Whether farmers' concerns about market uncertainty will persist post-trade truce.
- Storage Dynamics
- The pace at which off-farm storage levels will adjust to the record corn harvest.