Alberta's GDP Growth Revised Upward on Higher Oil Prices Amid Geopolitical Turmoil
Event summary
- Alberta's real GDP growth forecast for 2026 revised to 2.7% from 2.1%, driven by higher oil prices and stronger economic performance.
- WTI oil price forecast upgraded to average US$75 per barrel in 2026, up from US$61, due to Middle East conflict.
- Alberta's nominal GDP expected to increase by 6.0%, but capital spending remains steady due to uncertainty over pipeline capacity.
- Record oil exports to Asia reached over $9 billion in 2025 via Trans Mountain Expansion.
- Alberta's inflation projected at 2.5% in 2026, with Bank of Canada expected to hold interest rates at 2.25%.
The big picture
Alberta's economy is outperforming national GDP growth despite geopolitical turmoil, driven by higher oil prices and record exports to Asia. However, energy producers are maintaining capital discipline due to uncertainty over pipeline capacity and the duration of the price increase. The province's diversified growth across sectors like tourism, tech, and agri-food processing is helping cushion impacts from rising costs and trade pressures.
What we're watching
- Pipeline Capacity
- Whether new pipeline projects will proceed, creating a runway for investment in growth projects.
- Trade Uncertainty
- How persistent headwinds from U.S. trade uncertainty will impact Alberta's manufacturing and export sectors.
- Labour Market Dynamics
- The pace at which Alberta's population growth slows and how it affects job creation and unemployment rates.
Related topics