CoinEx Predicts Structural Shift in Crypto Market Beyond Halving Cycles

Event summary

  • CoinEx Research projects Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by end-2026, driven by macro liquidity, institutional flows, and regulatory clarity.
  • The firm argues the traditional halving cycle narrative is breaking down due to structural changes in the market.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs and institutional participation are creating a more stable market structure, reducing the likelihood of extreme drawdowns.
  • CoinEx launched three products in 2025: CoinEx Vault, CoinEx OnChain, and CoinEx Pay, extending its core exchange infrastructure.
  • The firm sees long-term potential in BTCFi, cross-border payments, and tokenized real-world assets like Treasuries and trade finance.

The big picture

CoinEx's outlook signals a transition from retail-driven, halving-cycle-driven crypto markets to a more institutionally influenced, structurally complex environment. The firm's projections and product strategy reflect a broader industry shift toward practical financial infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and selective capital allocation. This phase may be defined less by hype and more by the strength of underlying market structures.

What we're watching

Macro Liquidity
Whether sustained easing by the Federal Reserve will materially loosen dollar liquidity conditions, supporting Bitcoin's upward trajectory.
Regulatory Progress
The pace at which regulatory clarity, particularly in the U.S. through the CLARITY Act, reduces structural drags on institutional participation.
Market Selectivity
How the shift toward selective capital allocation will impact altcoin markets and the broader crypto ecosystem.