Vail Resorts Hit by 'Vanishing Winter' as Skier Visits Plummet

BROOMFIELD, CO – April 23, 2026 – Vail Resorts, a titan of the global ski industry, is facing a stark financial reality after what its own chief executive described as “one of the most challenging winters in history.” The company announced a dramatic 14.9% drop in season-to-date skier visits across its North American resorts through April 19, a direct consequence of record low snowfall and unseasonably warm temperatures that plagued the western United States.

The poor conditions forced early closures at many mountains and led to a significant downturn in spending, prompting the company to revise its financial outlook for fiscal 2026. The report serves as a chilling bellwether for an industry grappling with the escalating impacts of climate change, raising questions about the future of winter tourism and the economies that depend on it.

A Season of Discontent

The numbers released by Vail Resorts paint a bleak picture of the 2025-2026 ski season. Beyond the nearly 15% plunge in total skier visits, every major revenue stream felt the impact of the sparse snow. Total lift revenue, which includes a portion of the company’s critical season pass sales, fell by 5.6% compared to the prior year. Ancillary spending, a key indicator of guest engagement, saw even steeper declines. Ski school revenue was down 12.0%, and on-mountain dining revenue dropped by 11.7%.

Retail and rental operations also suffered, with revenue from North American resort stores declining by 6.6%. The data underscores a season where not only did fewer people ski, but those who did spent less money during their visit.

In a statement, Vail Resorts CEO Rob Katz directly attributed the poor performance to the weather. “The winter of 2025/2026 has been one of the most challenging winters in history across the western U.S., with record low snowfall and historically warm temperatures negatively impacting visitation and spending throughout the season,” he said. Katz noted that the poor conditions persisted into March, leading to “weaker late-season visitation and earlier than planned closures for many resorts.”

The impact was most acute in the company’s crucial Rocky Mountain region, home to iconic resorts like Vail, Breckenridge, and Park City. Here, visitation plummeted by a staggering 25%, dragging down the company’s overall performance.

An Industry-Wide Chill

While Vail Resorts’ vast portfolio makes its results a significant barometer, the challenging winter was not a problem confined to its properties. The adverse weather patterns sent a chill across the entire Western U.S. ski industry, indicating a systemic vulnerability rather than a company-specific misstep.

Independent resorts reported similar struggles. Brundage Mountain in Idaho, for example, saw its skier visits fall by approximately 15%, a figure remarkably close to Vail’s overall decline. In Montana, Whitefish Mountain Resort reported an 8% drop in visitation, though it still marked the resort’s fifth-busiest season, suggesting some regional resilience. These figures confirm that the “vanishing winter” was a widespread phenomenon, affecting resorts large and small.

Interestingly, Vail Resorts noted that its Midwest and Northeast ski areas experienced a more favorable season, highlighting the geographic concentration of the weather crisis. This geographic diversity has long been a part of the company’s strategy to mitigate the risk of a poor snow year in any single region, but the severity of the drought in the West was too significant to overcome.

Wall Street Reacts to the Thaw

The financial repercussions of the weak season were swift. Vail Resorts announced it now expects its Resort Reported EBITDA (a key measure of profitability) for fiscal 2026 to be “at or around the low end” of its previously issued guidance of $745 million to $775 million. That guidance had already been revised downward in early March as the scale of the challenging season became apparent.

Wall Street analysts responded by recalibrating their expectations for the company. UBS lowered its price target on Vail Resorts stock (NYSE: MTN) to $139 from $169, maintaining a “Neutral” rating but citing the direct impact of the weather on revenue. Morgan Stanley followed suit, cutting its price target to $147 from $151. Shares have reflected the investor concern, trading near their 52-week low and down over 12% in the last six months.

Despite the downgrades, some analysts, like Jefferies, maintained a “Buy” rating, perhaps looking past the anomalous season to the company’s long-term strategy. However, the immediate sentiment is one of caution as the market digests the tangible financial cost of an unreliable winter.

The Future of the Epic Pass

The challenging season also puts a spotlight on Vail Resorts' pioneering business model, which is heavily reliant on advance sales of its Epic Pass. The pass system is designed to provide revenue stability by locking in customer commitment before the season even begins, insulating the company from some weather-related volatility. While lift ticket revenue, which includes pass sales, saw a smaller decline (5.6%) than visitation (14.9%), this season tests the limits of that model and customer loyalty.

Early signs for the upcoming 2026-2027 season suggest some consumer hesitation. Katz noted that spring pass sales through the first deadline on April 12th showed a “moderate decline in pass product units and a slight decline in sales dollars.” While he cautioned that it is still early in the sales cycle, the trend indicates that a season of brown slopes and closed runs may be weighing on skiers’ minds as they decide whether to commit nearly a year in advance.

This raises broader questions for the entire industry about long-term adaptation. As winters become less predictable, resorts are under increasing pressure to invest heavily in snowmaking technology, diversify into year-round activities, and communicate a clear strategy for climate resilience. For Vail Resorts and its competitors, the fallout from the winter of 2026 is more than just a line item on a quarterly report; it is a critical test of their ability to adapt and survive in a rapidly warming world.