The $8.8 Trillion Gamble: Can Sports Outrun Climate and Inactivity?

LONDON, UK – January 15, 2026 – The global sports economy, a powerhouse of culture and commerce, is on a trajectory to reach an astonishing $8.8 trillion in annual revenue by 2050. However, a landmark new report warns this monumental growth is on a collision course with two existential threats: escalating climate change and rising physical inactivity. Without urgent, coordinated action, these converging crises could erase up to $1.6 trillion from the industry's projected revenue by mid-century.

The findings come from "Sports for People and Planet," a comprehensive report released by management consulting leader Oliver Wyman in collaboration with the World Economic Forum. The analysis, compiled from over 130 independent sources and consultations with more than 125 global organizations, paints a picture of an industry at a critical crossroads—one where its immense financial future is inextricably linked to the health of its participants and the planet itself.

A High-Stakes Projection Meets a Stark Reality

The report details a sector poised for explosive expansion. Currently generating $2.3 trillion annually, the sports economy is projected to grow at a compound rate of 10% over the next five years, hitting $3.7 trillion by 2030 before its ascent toward the $8.8 trillion mark by 2050. This growth encompasses everything from elite events and media rights to sporting goods, tourism, and grassroots fitness.

Yet, this lucrative future is far from guaranteed. The report issues a stark warning that up to $517 billion in annual revenue is at risk as soon as 2030 due to the combined impacts of environmental degradation and declining public health.

"As well as exploring key growth drivers that are shaping the global sports economy, this report identifies three distinct pathways that reflect sport’s unique impact," said Tony Simpson, Partner and Sports Practice Leader at Oliver Wyman. He noted the analysis could help organizations with "investment and risk, as well as with insurance considerations that support this industry."

The dual nature of sport—as both an economic engine and a powerful cultural force—positions it uniquely to address these challenges. "Sport blends economic power and cultural influence in ways few other sectors can match," stated Sebastian Buckup, Managing Director at the World Economic Forum. "This paper illustrates how public, private and civil society leaders can harness that potential to shape a new model of prosperity that delivers not only financial returns, but healthier societies and thriving natural ecosystems."

The Converging Crisis of Climate and Health

The threats identified by the report are not isolated issues but part of a dangerous feedback loop. Escalating climate risks—including extreme heat, unpredictable weather, and pollution—are directly disrupting the business of sport. Research indicates that between 2004 and 2024, extreme weather disrupted over 2,000 global events, with sports accounting for a fifth of these incidents. Heat stress endangers athletes, forces schedule changes, and diminishes the spectator experience, while rising sea levels and water scarcity threaten infrastructure from coastal stadiums to snow-dependent ski resorts.

Simultaneously, the report highlights the industry's own complicity. The resource-intensive nature of major sporting events, global travel for teams and fans, and the manufacturing of goods contribute significantly to carbon emissions, water use, and waste, exacerbating the very environmental pressures that threaten its operations.

This environmental crisis is compounded by a public health crisis: soaring rates of physical inactivity. Projections show the number of physically inactive people could reach 800 million globally by 2030. This trend is particularly acute among younger demographics. Studies show Generation Z is less engaged with traditional sports than previous generations; one survey found that only 18% of Gen Zers had attended a live sporting event in the past year, and 38% do not have a favorite sports team.

This disengagement erodes the foundation of the sports economy by shrinking the future pipeline of participants, fans, and consumers. The report underscores a vicious cycle: environmental degradation like poor air quality discourages outdoor activity, while a more sedentary population becomes more vulnerable to climate-related health issues, further dampening demand across the entire sports ecosystem.

A New Playbook for Growth and Resilience

Rather than just sounding the alarm, the "Sports for People and Planet" report outlines a strategic playbook for navigating these challenges, identifying key growth drivers and multi-stakeholder pathways to forge a more resilient and prosperous future. The analysis suggests that the solutions to these existential risks are also the industry's greatest opportunities.

Four key growth drivers are identified as shaping the future sports economy:
* The Mainstreaming of Women’s Sports: Currently the fastest-growing segment, women’s professional sport is experiencing unprecedented investment and viewership. Revenues are projected to more than triple from 2022 to 2025, driven by leagues like the NWSL and cricket's Women's Premier League. The Paris 2024 Olympics, which achieved full gender parity on the field of play, marks a watershed moment for this movement.
* Sport as an Asset Class: The industry is attracting a new wave of sophisticated investors, with private equity and venture capital viewing sports franchises, leagues, and related technologies as a resilient and distinct asset class beyond mere "trophy" purchases.
* The Acceleration of Sports Tourism: Already accounting for 10% of global travel expenditure, sports-related tourism is growing rapidly and represents a significant revenue stream for host cities and nations.
* Rebalancing Growth with Emerging Economies: Tapping into the potential of developing markets, particularly in regions like Africa, offers new frontiers for long-term investment and economic expansion.

To capitalize on these drivers while mitigating risks, the report proposes three pathways. The first, Championing Resource Stewardship, calls for scaling circular business models, with brands like Adidas using recycled materials and retailers like Decathlon expanding repair programs. The second, Placing Sport at the Heart of Cities, involves integrating sports and recreational infrastructure into urban planning to foster healthier, more active communities. The final pathway, Catalysing Purpose-Driven Capital Flows, points to the rise of investment funds like the Monarch Collective, which is dedicated solely to women's sports, proving that financial returns can be aligned with positive social and environmental outcomes.

An Industry at a Crossroads

The report's release has been received by industry bodies as a pivotal moment and a "call for alignment and action." The World Federation of the Sporting Goods Industry, for instance, acknowledged the report's crucial role in connecting participation, sustainability, and economic performance, urging its members to double down on ESG commitments and investments that promote physical activity.

Ultimately, the analysis from Oliver Wyman and the World Economic Forum frames the future of sports not as a matter of simply weathering external storms, but of actively transforming from within. The industry's immense cultural platform gives it a unique capacity to not only secure its own $8.8 trillion future but also to lead the charge in building healthier societies and a more sustainable planet. The path forward requires a fundamental shift, where the health of people and the environment are no longer seen as external risks to be managed, but as core components of the business model itself. The whistle has been blown; how the industry chooses to play the game in the coming decades will determine if it wins this high-stakes match.