Sherritt's 2025 Results: A Test of Resilience in Metals and Energy

TORONTO, ON – January 19, 2026 – Sherritt International Corporation (TSX:S) is set to pull back the curtain on its 2025 performance, with investors and industry analysts keenly awaiting the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year financial results on February 10, 2026. The announcement, followed by a management conference call the next morning, will provide a critical scorecard for the Toronto-based company as it navigates a complex and dual-faceted strategy: leading North America's charge in critical minerals while operating as the largest independent power producer in Cuba.

The upcoming disclosure arrives at a pivotal moment. The global markets for nickel and cobalt, metals essential for the green energy transition, have been on a rollercoaster ride, emerging from a period of significant oversupply and price depression. Sherritt's results will offer the first comprehensive look at how the company weathered these market storms in 2025 and whether it is positioned to capitalize on a recent, and potentially fragile, price recovery.

Navigating Turbulent Critical Minerals Markets

The story of 2025 for metals like nickel and cobalt was one of dramatic swings. For much of the year, the nickel market grappled with a persistent surplus, largely driven by aggressive production expansion from Indonesia. This glut pushed prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to their lowest levels since 2020, challenging producers worldwide. Sherritt’s 2024 performance, which saw a Net Direct Cash Cost (NDCC) in the range of US$5.50 to US$6.00 per pound, will serve as a key benchmark against which its 2025 cost-control measures will be judged.

However, the narrative shifted dramatically in late 2025. In December, news that Indonesia planned to slash its 2026 nickel ore quota by as much as a third sent a jolt through the market. Prices surged in response, climbing from a low of around $13,865 per metric ton earlier in the year to over $18,000 per ton by mid-January 2026. Investors will be eager to see how Sherritt managed its sales and inventory during this period of volatility, particularly after its strong Q4 2024 sales performance, which was its highest in two years.

The cobalt market experienced its own seismic event. After prices hit multi-year lows in 2024 due to oversupply, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)—the source of over 80% of the world's cobalt—intervened decisively. In February 2025, the DRC implemented a four-month export ban to stabilize prices. The impact was immediate and profound. When exports resumed under a new quota system in the fall, prices on the LME had more than doubled, exceeding US$44,000 per ton by October. This price shock will have had a significant impact on the revenue generated from Sherritt's Moa Joint Venture.

A Strategic Linchpin in North America's Supply Chain

Beyond the immediate impact of commodity prices, Sherritt's strategic position within North America’s industrial and green energy ambitions has never been more relevant. The company operates a hydrometallurgical refinery in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, which it describes as the only significant cobalt refinery and one of just three nickel refineries on the continent. This facility makes Sherritt a crucial player in the push to build secure, domestic supply chains for materials vital to electric vehicle (EV) batteries and renewable energy infrastructure.

This strategic importance was underscored by direct support from the Canadian government. Through its Critical Minerals Research, Development and Demonstration (CMRDD) program, Natural Resources Canada awarded Sherritt nearly $800,000 to fund a pilot project. The project aims to test the feasibility of processing Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP), an intermediate nickel product, at its Alberta refinery. Success in this endeavor could diversify Sherritt's feed sources, reduce its reliance on foreign inputs, and further solidify Canada’s position in the global critical minerals value chain.

"The market is looking for proof that Sherritt can manage its costs effectively in the metals division while capitalizing on the recent price recovery," an analyst covering the materials sector commented anonymously. "But its alignment with national strategy provides a long-term tailwind that insulates it from some of the pure commodity price risk."

The Cuban Powerhouse: A Source of Stability

Contrasting sharply with the volatility of its metals business is Sherritt's Power division in Cuba. Through its stake in Energas, the company is the largest independent energy producer on the island, supplying approximately 10% of its total electricity. While Cuba's national energy grid faces chronic challenges, including aging infrastructure and fuel shortages, Sherritt's operations have proven to be a resilient and increasingly lucrative asset.

In 2024, Energas's electricity production hit a six-year high, a testament to long-term optimization efforts and improved equipment availability. This operational success is translating directly to Sherritt's bottom line. The division sent $13 million in dividends to Canada in 2024, and the company forecasted that this figure would more than double to between $25 million and $30 million for the full year of 2025. This steady stream of cash flow provides a crucial financial buffer, helping the company fund its operations and manage debt amidst the unpredictable swings of the metals market.

Investors will be watching the final 2025 dividend figure from Energas closely, as it represents a key pillar of the company's diversified strategy and its ability to generate shareholder value independent of commodity cycles.

Investor Outlook and Key Metrics

Heading into the earnings release, the analyst consensus on Sherritt remains cautious, with most holding a "Neutral" or "Hold" rating and modest 12-month price targets. This suggests the market is in a "wait-and-see" mode, looking for concrete data to justify a more bullish or bearish stance. The upcoming report and subsequent management call will be instrumental in shaping that sentiment.

Key metrics under scrutiny will include full-year production and sales volumes for nickel and cobalt, the NDCC per pound of nickel produced, and the company's overall Adjusted EBITDA. The final tally of dividends received from Energas will be a critical data point, as will any updates to the company's liquidity position, which stood at $62.4 million at the end of 2024. Furthermore, any guidance provided for 2026 production, costs, and capital expenditures will be vital for assessing the company's forward-looking strategy. The February 11th conference call will be closely watched for management’s plan to navigate these complex dynamics and capitalize on its unique position in the year ahead.