RAN Market Faces Decade of Stagnation Before 6G Wave

NEW YORK, NY – October 28, 2025

The Unexpected Plateau

The relentless growth trajectory of the telecommunications industry is facing an unexpected plateau. According to a new report from Dell’Oro Group, the Radio Access Network (RAN) market is poised for a decade of stagnation, challenging the long-held assumption of continuous expansion. While 5G rollouts continue, a confluence of factors – market saturation in developed economies and a delayed return on investment – are converging to create a challenging landscape for network equipment vendors. The forecast sharply contrasts with the rapid growth experienced during previous generation transitions and forces a reevaluation of investment strategies across the sector.

“The era of double-digit growth in RAN is over, at least for the next ten years,” stated one industry analyst. “Operators have already made significant investments in 5G, and the immediate need for large-scale deployments is diminishing. They are now focused on optimizing existing networks and extracting value from their current assets.”

This isn't necessarily a sign of decline, but rather a maturation of the market. The explosive growth of mobile data traffic has slowed, and the initial rush to deploy 5G is giving way to a more measured approach. Network operators are prioritizing efficiency and profitability over simply adding capacity.

The 6G Lifeline

While the RAN market braces for a decade of relative calm, all eyes are turning to 6G as the next major driver of growth. Dell’Oro Group predicts that significant investment in 6G infrastructure won’t begin until around 2030, with 6G capital expenditure projected to account for 55-60% of total RAN spending between 2029 and 2034. This timeline aligns with the ongoing research and standardization efforts currently underway.

6G promises a paradigm shift in wireless technology, offering terabit-per-second data rates, ultra-low latency, and enhanced sensing capabilities. It's envisioned to unlock a new wave of applications, including immersive extended reality (XR), digital twins, and intelligent autonomous systems. However, realizing this potential requires overcoming significant technological challenges, including developing new spectrum bands, advanced antenna technologies, and AI-powered network management.

“6G is not just an incremental improvement over 5G,” explained a researcher involved in 6G development. “It's a fundamentally different architecture that will require a complete overhaul of the network infrastructure. It’s a long and complex process, but the potential rewards are immense.”

Beyond Smartphones: The New Use Cases

The future growth of the RAN market isn't solely dependent on consumer smartphones. Several emerging use cases are expected to drive demand for wireless infrastructure, providing a lifeline during the upcoming decade of stagnation. These include private wireless networks, fixed wireless access (FWA), and the proliferation of Internet of Things (IoT) devices.

Private 5G networks are gaining traction among enterprises seeking secure and reliable connectivity for critical operations. Manufacturing facilities, ports, and mining operations are deploying private networks to automate processes, improve efficiency, and enhance worker safety. FWA is emerging as a viable alternative to traditional broadband, particularly in rural and underserved areas. Operators are leveraging 5G to deliver high-speed internet access without the need for costly fiber deployments. Finally, the continued growth of IoT is fueling demand for wireless connectivity for billions of devices, ranging from smart sensors to connected vehicles.

“We’re seeing a shift from a purely consumer-driven model to a more diversified ecosystem,” noted one telecom executive. “Enterprises are becoming increasingly important customers, and they have different requirements than individual consumers. They need reliable, secure, and customized wireless solutions, and we’re adapting our offerings to meet those needs.”

However, the extent to which these use cases can fully offset the slowdown in consumer spending remains to be seen. While they offer promising growth opportunities, they are still relatively nascent and require significant investment and innovation.

Analysts caution that a prolonged period of stagnation could lead to consolidation within the RAN market. Smaller vendors may struggle to compete with larger, more established players, and mergers and acquisitions are likely to become more common. This could reduce competition and stifle innovation. The need for efficient and reliable wireless infrastructure, however, is assured. The current market climate is simply a period of recalibration and strategic planning for the next wave of technological advancement.