Old National Q4 Earnings Preview: What to Watch as Bank Caps Big 2025

EVANSVILLE, Ind. – January 05, 2026 – Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) has officially scheduled its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results announcement for the morning of January 21, 2026, setting the stage for a critical assessment of a transformative year. The report, and the subsequent investor conference call, will provide the first complete picture of the Midwest banking giant's performance following a period of significant expansion and strategic integration. For investors and market analysts, the release is more than a routine update; it's a referendum on the company's ambitious growth strategy and its outlook for 2026.

The Evansville-based holding company, which traces its roots to 1834, enters this reporting period with considerable momentum. The past year was defined by the successful acquisition and integration of Bremer Financial Corporation, a move that fundamentally reshaped Old National's scale and market position. As stakeholders prepare to dissect the numbers, they will be looking for confirmation that this growth has translated into sustainable profitability and operational strength.

A Year of Transformation and Growth

The most significant event of 2025 for Old National was undoubtedly the closing of its Bremer Financial Corporation acquisition on May 1. The deal dramatically expanded the company's balance sheet, vaulting its total assets to approximately $71 billion and its assets under management to $38 billion. This cemented its status as the sixth-largest commercial bank headquartered in the Midwest and a top 25 banking company in the United States.

The impact was immediate and profound. The second-quarter results showed total assets surging 34% year-over-year, while total deposits climbed 36% to over $54 billion. The integration of a company the size of Bremer presented significant operational challenges, but Old National reported the successful completion of the core systems conversion during the third quarter. This milestone was crucial, as it signaled a move from the complex work of integration to a new phase focused on leveraging the combined entity's strengths. Investors will be keen to hear management's commentary on any remaining integration costs and the realization of expected cost synergies in the fourth-quarter results.

Scrutinizing the Numbers: Analyst Expectations and Key Metrics

Heading into the January 21st release, Old National has a track record of exceeding market expectations throughout 2025. The company posted strong third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.59, beating analyst forecasts of $0.56. Revenue also topped estimates, coming in at $705.07 million.

For the fourth quarter, the analyst consensus is for this strong performance to continue, with an average EPS estimate of $0.59 on projected revenues of around $705.52 million. While these top-line numbers will be the initial focus, seasoned investors will dig deeper into several key performance indicators to gauge the underlying health of the business.

• Net Interest Margin (NIM): This metric, which measures the profitability of a bank's lending activities, has been a bright spot. Old National's NIM expanded to 3.64% in the third quarter, a healthy figure in the current economic environment. Analysts will be watching to see if the bank can maintain or improve this margin, as it is a primary driver of net interest income and overall profitability.
• Loan and Deposit Growth: While the Bremer acquisition provided a massive one-time boost, investors will be scrutinizing organic growth trends. Third-quarter results showed modest annualized loan growth of 0.6%, but this figure rises to a more robust 3.1% when excluding the impact of acquired loans. Continued strength in organic loan origination and the stability of the bank's nearly $55 billion deposit base will be seen as positive indicators of core business health.
• Efficiency Ratio: The adjusted efficiency ratio, which measures noninterest expense as a percentage of revenue, improved to a strong 48.1% in the third quarter. Maintaining this level of efficiency will be critical to proving the long-term financial benefits of the Bremer acquisition.

A Bellwether for Midwest Banking

As a major financial institution with a primary focus on the Midwest and a growing presence in the Southeast, Old National's performance serves as an important economic bellwether. The health of its loan portfolio, trends in commercial and consumer lending, and credit quality metrics will offer valuable insights into the economic vitality of the regions it serves. The commentary from executives during the conference call will be closely monitored for their perspective on regional business investment, consumer sentiment, and potential economic headwinds or tailwinds heading into 2026.

The bank's ability to navigate the competitive landscape against other regional players will also be under the microscope. Its expanded scale provides a competitive advantage, but sustained success will depend on its ability to effectively deploy its larger capital base and integrated service offerings to win market share in both legacy and new territories.

Beyond the Balance Sheet: Strategy and Community Focus

While financial metrics will dominate the headlines on January 21, Old National's strategic actions throughout 2025 highlight a broader focus on long-term value creation and corporate responsibility. The company's efforts were recognized nationally when Points of Light named it one of "The Civic 50," an honor reserved for the 50 most community-minded companies in the U.S. This commitment was demonstrated through initiatives like its "Better Together Days," during which employees volunteered nearly 8,000 hours.

Shareholder returns have also remained a priority. The board approved a $200 million stock repurchase program in February 2025 and consistently declared its quarterly cash dividend, signaling confidence in its financial position. Strategically, the company has also been making moves to enhance its future growth drivers, including an expansion of its Wealth Management business to better serve high-net-worth clients and institutions.

Leadership evolution is also part of the story, with the planned retirement of Commercial Banking CEO Jim Sandgren in April 2026 and the appointment of Tim Burke as President and Chief Operating Officer earlier in 2025. The upcoming call will give investors a chance to hear from this leadership team about their vision for the newly enlarged bank. The report will provide the data, but the narrative shared by management will shape the market's perception of Old National's ability to capitalize on its transformative year and drive growth in the future.