Nielsen's TV Currency Under Fire After Damning VAB Report

NEW YORK, NY – December 16, 2025 – The foundation of the multi-billion dollar television advertising market was shaken today as the Video Advertising Bureau (VAB) released a scathing report accusing Nielsen's new 'Big Data + Panel' (BD+P) currency of being unstable, unpredictable, and causing massive inconsistencies in audience measurement. The analysis, which Nielsen has strenuously denied, suggests that the very tool used to guarantee billions in ad buys is systemically flawed, creating chaos for advertisers and networks alike.

The report, titled "4Q 2025 Currency Instability," details what the VAB calls "severe variability" between Nielsen's new hybrid measurement system and its legacy panel-only data. The findings have reignited a long-simmering debate over measurement accuracy and could accelerate the industry's shift toward a multi-currency marketplace.

"It turns out the begrudging Upfront use of Nielsen's not-really-ready Big Data trading currency has already gone to worst-case-scenario on early returns," said Sean Cunningham, President & CEO of VAB, in a statement. "There is deep instability on the big-volume trading demos...audience guarantees were set on a systemically defective BD+P foundation that is now showing pervasive audience volitivity."

The Heart of the Accusation

The VAB's deep-dive analysis paints a troubling picture of volatility. The study, which examined audience data from September 15 to October 12 across 33 broadcast and cable networks, found staggering discrepancies for the key demographics that advertisers pay a premium to reach.

According to the report, between 45% and 58% of all programming hours analyzed showed an audience variance of over 20% when comparing the new BD+P data against the traditional panel-only (PO) figures. For the coveted 18-34 demographic, the problem was even more acute, with one in every ten hours showing what the VAB terms "severe variances." In a significant number of instances across all key demographics, the audience variance between the two measurement methods exceeded a staggering 50%.

Even the untouchable titan of television, the NFL, was not immune. The analysis of 30 NFL games revealed that between 16% and 40% of game hours had double-digit audience variances between the two Nielsen datasets. For high-rated games, a double-digit variance isn't just a statistical anomaly; it can represent the miscounting of hundreds of thousands of viewers, directly impacting the value of ad slots that brands paid top dollar for.

Cunningham added, "For the big-volume trading demos, currency has two jobs: stability and predictability. Our deep-dive shows that BD+P has not gotten either job done, across thousands of hours of premium programming."

Nielsen's Defense and the 'Big Data' Promise

Nielsen has forcefully pushed back, calling the VAB's report "seriously flawed and manipulated." The measurement giant officially switched to its BD+P currency in September 2025, heralding it as the most accurate and comprehensive view of the television audience to date. The system achieved a critical milestone by earning accreditation from the Media Rating Council (MRC) in January 2025, a stamp of approval that Nielsen's competitors have eagerly sought.

The methodology behind BD+P is a hybrid approach designed to solve the challenges of a fragmented media landscape. It combines Nielsen's long-standing, demographically representative panel of households with massive datasets from 45 million households and 75 million devices via cable set-top boxes and smart TVs. Nielsen argues this integration provides a more stable and granular picture of viewership, reducing the statistical noise and "zero ratings" that can occur with smaller panel sizes.

According to Nielsen, the panel acts as the "source of truth" to calibrate the raw big data, correcting for anomalies like "phantom tuning" (when a set-top box is on but the TV is off) and determining who, not just how many, is watching. The company claims this process improves accuracy and better represents diverse audiences. However, the VAB's report directly challenges these claims of stability, using Nielsen's own panel data as the benchmark to highlight the volatility of the new hybrid figure.

The Advertiser's Dilemma

The conflict leaves advertisers and their agencies in a precarious position. Billions of dollars in the 2025-26 upfront market were committed based on audience guarantees derived from the BD+P system. If that data is as erratic as the VAB claims, advertisers may not be reaching their intended audiences, throwing return-on-investment calculations into disarray.

Despite the loud criticism from the VAB, which represents many of the networks selling the ad time, the industry remains deeply entangled with Nielsen. In a telling move, the six largest advertising holding companies and major networks like Paramount Global and Warner Bros. Discovery all renewed multiyear contracts with Nielsen for its BD+P currency over the summer. This underscores the difficulty of moving away from a decades-long standard, even in the face of significant doubt.

Nonetheless, the frustration is fueling a broader movement. Industry bodies like the Association of National Advertisers (ANA) are championing initiatives for a transparent, multi-currency future where advertisers can use different measurement providers to validate performance. The current controversy only adds urgency to that quest.

A History of Measurement Wars

Challenges to Nielsen's dominance are not new. The company has faced scrutiny for decades as it struggled to adapt its measurement to new technologies, from the VCR to the DVR and now to the complex world of streaming. This latest conflict is another chapter in the ongoing "measurement wars."

As recently as 2021, Nielsen lost its prestigious MRC accreditation after it was found to have undercounted viewership during the COVID-19 pandemic, a period when its inability to maintain its panel homes in-person led to what networks claimed were billions in lost ad revenue. While Nielsen worked to resolve the issues and regained its accreditation in 2023, the incident eroded trust and emboldened competitors.

The VAB itself has been a vocal critic for years, previously demanding third-party audits and questioning whether Nielsen's legacy panels were already undercounting millions of viewers. The transition to BD+P was meant to be a step forward, but for its critics, it has only introduced a new layer of unacceptable unpredictability.

The Rise of Alternative Currencies

Nielsen's struggles have created a significant opening for competitors. Companies like Comscore, iSpot.tv, and VideoAmp have been steadily gaining traction by offering alternative measurement solutions. Comscore, for instance, also achieved MRC accreditation for its own TV metrics and utilizes a census-based approach to capture data from a vast footprint of set-top boxes and smart TVs.

In a move to benchmark Nielsen's performance, the VAB reportedly conducted "blind tests" earlier in 2025 using data from VideoAmp and Comscore. The results allegedly showed that these alternative providers reported significantly higher viewership than Nielsen, with their audience figures being much closer to each other, positioning Nielsen as a potential outlier.

While Nielsen still commands the lion's share of the market, the industry is undeniably shifting. The consensus is growing that the future of measurement will not be a monopoly but a multi-currency ecosystem, where advertisers and networks can leverage multiple data sources to get a more complete and reliable picture of who is watching. This latest report from the VAB may serve as a powerful catalyst, pushing the industry further and faster down that path.