Moelis Q4 Results to Test Momentum Amid Surging M&A Market

NEW YORK, NY – January 14, 2026 – Moelis & Company is set to pull back the curtain on its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 performance on February 4, an announcement keenly awaited by investors looking for a final scorecard on a tumultuous and ultimately resurgent year for the investment banking industry. The results, and the subsequent conference call with new Chief Executive Officer Navid Mahmoodzadegan and CFO Chris Callesano, will serve as a critical barometer for the firm’s trajectory and the health of the broader dealmaking ecosystem.

After a sluggish period, 2025 marked a spectacular comeback for mergers and acquisitions. The release will provide the first comprehensive look at how Moelis navigated this dynamic landscape under new leadership, and whether its strategic investments have positioned it to maintain momentum against fierce competition.

A Sector Reborn: The 2025 Dealmaking Boom

The environment leading into Moelis’s year-end report could hardly be more different from the cautious sentiment that characterized the prior year. Global M&A activity roared back to life in 2025, with total deal volumes surging 39% to reach an estimated $4.3 trillion. This rebound was fueled by a confluence of factors, including stabilizing interest rates, moderating inflation, and a wave of strategic repositioning across major industries.

Technology, healthcare, and financial services led the charge with a series of megadeals, while private equity sponsors, sitting on nearly $3 trillion in uncommitted capital, became increasingly active in both buying and selling portfolio companies. The IPO market also showed renewed signs of life, with sponsor-backed issuance hitting its highest level since 2021. This flurry of activity created a fertile ground for advisory firms, translating directly into higher fees and robust pipelines.

Evidence of this industry-wide tailwind is already apparent in the strong results posted by Moelis's peers. Both Evercore and Lazard reported stellar third-quarter earnings, with Evercore achieving record adjusted net revenues of over $1 billion for the quarter, a 42% year-over-year increase. Lazard also posted record adjusted revenue, with its Financial Advisory segment growing 14%. This sets a high bar for Moelis and intensifies the focus on its Q4 numbers to confirm it kept pace with the market’s vigorous recovery.

Riding the Wave: Moelis's Performance Year-to-Date

Moelis entered the fourth quarter with significant momentum. The firm's financial results through the first nine months of 2025 painted a picture of consistent growth and successful execution. Adjusted revenues climbed 37% to $1.05 billion over that period, driven by a powerful combination of M&A advisory and a record-setting pace in its capital markets business.

The firm demonstrated its ability to capture high-value mandates, noting in its third-quarter update that a robust increase in average M&A fees was contributing to its top-line growth. The business mix was healthy, with approximately two-thirds of revenue stemming from M&A and the remainder from non-M&A activities like capital structure advisory. Critically, management reported that deal pipelines were hovering near all-time highs as it entered the final stretch of the year, with particular strength in technology, healthcare, industrials, and the burgeoning sports and media sectors.

Operationally, the firm has also shown discipline. Its adjusted compensation expense ratio improved to 68% for the first nine months of 2025, down from 69% for the full year 2024, signaling effective cost management even as it invested in growth. This combination of top-line expansion and operational efficiency will be a key focus for analysts scrutinizing the full-year figures.

Beyond the Numbers: Strategic Bets on Future Growth

While the 2025 financial results will dominate headlines, the February 4th conference call will be equally important for the strategic narrative it reveals. The call will provide a key platform for CEO Navid Mahmoodzadegan, who took the helm from founder Ken Moelis in 2025, to articulate his vision for 2026 and beyond. Investors will be listening intently for commentary on the firm's key strategic initiatives.

Chief among these is the significant investment in its Private Capital Advisory (PCA) business. Moelis has identified this segment, which focuses on GP-led secondary mandates and other complex sponsor-led transactions, as a potential $200 million revenue opportunity. With competitors like Evercore also reporting record results in their PCA divisions, Moelis's ability to capture market share in this burgeoning field is a cornerstone of its long-term growth story. Updates on the PCA pipeline and revenue contribution will be among the most anticipated details from the upcoming call.

Other key areas of focus include the firm’s expansion in Europe and its ongoing investments in technology and talent. Moelis has been on a hiring spree, strategically adding senior Managing Directors to bolster its coverage across key industries and geographies. How these new hires are integrating and contributing to deal flow will be a crucial measure of the strategy's success. The leadership's outlook on the M&A environment for 2026, especially in the context of shareholder activism which hit a record high in 2025, will also provide invaluable insight into the firm's strategic positioning.

Wall Street's Watchful Eye

Analysts head into the earnings release with a generally positive but cautious outlook. The consensus rating for Moelis stock hovers around "Neutral" to "Buy," with several firms, including UBS and Morgan Stanley, recently raising their price targets to the $74-$89 range, reflecting optimism about the sector's recovery. However, these expectations are now baked into the stock price, meaning the firm will need to deliver strong results to sustain its valuation.

Market expectations for the fourth quarter are pegged at around $323 million in revenue and earnings per share of approximately $1.54. Whether Moelis meets or exceeds these targets will be the initial litmus test. Beyond the headline numbers, analysts will dissect trends in compensation ratios, non-compensation expenses, and any forward-looking guidance offered by management. The upcoming report is more than just a financial disclosure; it is a pivotal moment for Moelis to validate its strategy, confirm its competitive standing in a revitalized market, and set the tone for a promising but demanding year ahead.