Flexport Launches Tariff Refund Calculator Amidst Landmark Supreme Court Case

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – January 20, 2026 – As thousands of U.S. businesses await a landmark Supreme Court decision, logistics technology firm Flexport has launched a free Tariff Refund Calculator, a tool designed to give importers a crucial glimpse into their potential financial future. The calculator aims to estimate billions of dollars in refunds that could be owed to companies if the Court strikes down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

The new tool, made publicly available at tariffs.flexport.com/refunds, arrives at a moment of profound uncertainty for global trade. It allows importers to upload their 2025 Entry Report from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and instantly receive an estimate of duties that could be eligible for refund, providing a data-driven foundation for scenario planning in a volatile regulatory environment.

“With customers awaiting the ruling, we built this tool to help them scenario-plan,” said Ryan Petersen, Founder and CEO of Flexport, in a statement. “We can’t predict the Court’s decision, but we can give businesses clearer insight so they’re prepared for whatever comes next.”

The High-Stakes Legal Battle Over IEEPA

The calculator’s launch is timed ahead of a pivotal ruling in Learning Resources v. Trump, a consolidated case that challenges the very foundation of the IEEPA tariffs. The core legal question is whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act grants a U.S. President the authority to levy tariffs. Importers and their legal challengers argue that the statutory power to “regulate importation” does not equate to a power to tax, and that such an interpretation would grant the executive branch an unconstitutionally broad and unchecked authority.

Lower courts have consistently agreed with this position. In a series of rulings in 2025, both the U.S. Court of International Trade and the Federal Circuit Appeals Court concluded that the president lacked the authority under IEEPA to impose these tariffs. The en banc Federal Circuit, in a decisive opinion, stated that the statute does not delegate “unlimited tariff authority” and that Congress would need to provide a clear “intelligible principle” to delegate such a significant power.

Now before the Supreme Court, which heard oral arguments on November 5, 2025, a final decision is expected in early 2026. Legal analysts and political strategists estimate there is a roughly 70% chance the Court will affirm the lower court rulings and strike down the tariffs. Such an outcome would invalidate tariffs applied broadly to goods from nearly all U.S. trading partners, including China, Mexico, Canada, and Brazil, under the IEEPA framework.

Billions in the Balance for U.S. Importers

The financial stakes are immense. The IEEPA tariff regime has collected over $140 billion in revenue since its implementation. A ruling in favor of the importers could make this entire sum—part of a larger $174 billion in total tariff revenue raised through mid-October 2025—subject to refund. For businesses that have paid these duties, this represents a potential “huge cash infusion” that could be redirected toward investment, hiring, or price stabilization.

If the tariffs are voided, the average statutory U.S. tariff rate is projected to fall from 16.1% to 10.4%, providing significant relief to industries that have been heavily impacted. The shrimp industry, for example, saw duties assessed under IEEPA skyrocket to $385.9 million in the first ten months of 2025, a dramatic increase from the $6.7 million paid in Section 301 duties on Chinese shrimp over a six-year period from 2018 to 2024.

However, experts caution that a refund may not signal the end of trade-related cost pressures. The current administration is widely expected to respond to a negative Supreme Court ruling by swiftly implementing new tariffs under different statutory authorities. These could include Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows for temporary tariffs to address trade imbalances, or an expanded use of Section 301, which targets unfair trade practices and has already been used to increase duties on a range of Chinese goods, including electric vehicles and semiconductors. This potential pivot means that while a refund could provide short-term relief, long-term uncertainty in trade policy is likely to persist.

A New Era for Trade Tech and Strategic Planning

It is this persistent uncertainty that Flexport’s Tariff Refund Calculator is designed to address. By providing a clear, data-based estimate of potential refunds, the tool shifts the focus from reactive compliance to proactive financial strategy. It allows Chief Financial Officers and supply chain leaders to model different outcomes, adjust budgets, and make more informed decisions about future cash flow and risk exposure.

“As one of the largest customs brokerages in the U.S., Flexport is uniquely positioned to help businesses of all sizes stay compliant while managing risk and cost,” Petersen added. “Customers kept asking us to see what could be possible, and we wanted to share this tool as soon as possible.”

The move also highlights a broader trend in the logistics industry: the increasing use of technology to democratize complex trade knowledge. While large customs brokers and law firms have long offered high-level advisory services, free and publicly accessible tools that automate complex calculations are a more recent innovation. They are particularly valuable for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that may not have the resources for expensive, bespoke consultations.

Flexport’s calculator, built upon its expertise in customs and trade advisory, represents a significant step in leveraging technology to provide transparency and actionable intelligence. In an era defined by geopolitical friction and shifting regulatory landscapes, the ability to quickly analyze the financial impact of policy changes is no longer a luxury but a necessity for survival and growth in global commerce.