Fighting Fire with Code: AI Project Models Firefighter Minds

FREDERICKSBURG, VA – April 23, 2026 – As wildfires grow in scale and ferocity, a Fredericksburg-based firm is pioneering a novel approach to combat the chaos, not by simply mapping the flames, but by creating a digital replica of the human decision-making process itself. Obsidian Solutions Group, in its third year of the NASA-funded FIRE ADAPT project, is developing a system designed to arm firefighters with clarity in the moments that matter most.

The initiative, formally known as the Firefighter Information Response Engine for Advanced Decision-making, Preparedness, and Training (FIRE ADAPT), addresses a paradox on the modern fire line: crews are often inundated with data from satellites, sensors, and weather models, yet struggle to synthesize it into actionable intelligence during high-stakes initial attacks. In partnership with the Western Fire Chiefs Association and Processus Group, the project aims to transform this fragmented data into a coherent operational picture.

The Digital Twin of a Decision

At the heart of FIRE ADAPT is a sophisticated technology known as a semantic knowledge graph, which serves as a "digital twin" of wildfire decision-making. Unlike a digital twin that merely simulates the physical environment of a fire, this system maps the cognitive landscape of the incident commander. It charts the critical decisions they face, the ideal timing for those choices, and the specific pieces of information required to make them effectively.

This decision-centric framework is built to mirror how experienced firefighters think and operate. “The challenge has never been a lack of data—it’s delivering the right information to the right decision-maker at the right moment,” said Matt Maher, CEO and Co-founder of Processus Group, a key partner in the project. “FIRE ADAPT captures firefighter knowledge in a decision-centric knowledge graph that reflects actual fireground processes. It turns fragmented data into a coherent operational picture, enabling faster, clearer decisions during initial attack while reinforcing experienced judgment.”

In its third year, the project has expanded its data integration, weaving together disparate sources like weather patterns, fuel conditions, terrain topography, resource status, and doctrinal guidelines. Crucially, it also incorporates insights from firefighters themselves, gathered through intensive workshops, interviews, and exercises. This ensures the system is not an abstract academic model but a tool grounded in the real-world constraints and pressures of the fireground. By linking this rich data directly to specific decision points, the system turns raw information into actionable insights that enhance situational awareness.

From Data Chaos to Operational Clarity

The escalating wildfire crisis has stretched firefighting resources thin, with longer seasons and more complex incidents becoming the norm. Veteran incident commanders and frontline crews consistently report that their greatest challenge is sifting through an avalanche of information to find the critical signal in the noise. Traditional methods can result in information lags of up to 48 hours, a lifetime when a fire is doubling in size every hour.

FIRE ADAPT is being developed to directly tackle this operational bottleneck. By codifying the decision-making process, it creates a structured way to analyze what information is needed, when, and by whom. The deep collaboration with the Western Fire Chiefs Association (WFCA) is central to this effort, ensuring the technology is built for firefighters, by firefighters. The WFCA has been a vocal advocate for a cultural shift towards proactive wildfire management, championing the integration of technology and data to improve intelligence and response.

This practitioner-led development is a key differentiator in a growing market of wildfire tech solutions. While many companies leverage AI for early detection or fire-spread prediction, FIRE ADAPT focuses on augmenting the cognitive workload of the human decision-maker. The goal is not to replace seasoned judgment but to empower it, allowing incident commanders to make more fully informed choices with greater speed and confidence. This could lead to more effective resource allocation, safer conditions for firefighters, and ultimately, better protection for threatened communities and natural landscapes.

NASA's Earth-Bound Mission

The project's backing from NASA’s Earth Science Division highlights a broader strategic shift within the space agency: leveraging its vast technological and scientific capabilities to address critical challenges on Earth. The grant is part of a larger portfolio of initiatives, such as the FireSense project, aimed at developing novel observation and modeling tools for wildfire management.

NASA's interest in "digital twin" technology extends beyond FIRE ADAPT. The agency is also developing a comprehensive "Wildfire Digital Twin" designed to produce high-resolution, real-time predictions of fire spread. FIRE ADAPT complements this by focusing on the human element, ensuring that advanced data from satellites and sensors is not just available, but operationally relevant.

This collaboration reflects a growing understanding that effective disaster response requires a fusion of advanced data science and deep operational expertise. “As wildfires grow more complex, better decision support is urgent,” noted Ken Kassner, a retired Marine Corps Colonel and Principal Advisor at Obsidian. “FIRE ADAPT captures fireground decision-making and scales it across the enterprise. We’re excited to refine it with partners and the firefighting community.” Obsidian Solutions Group, with its background in operational analysis, systems integration, and modeling for complex government and defense challenges, is uniquely positioned to bridge this gap between high-level data and on-the-ground action.

Charting the Future of Wildfire Response

As the FIRE ADAPT project moves forward, its leaders plan to further enhance the knowledge graph, integrate more advanced AI tools, and broaden community engagement. A primary long-term objective is to establish a shared, open framework that can be adopted nationwide. This open-source philosophy could foster greater interoperability between different agencies and technologies, creating a unified standard for decision support across the wildland firefighting community.

In a rapidly evolving landscape of wildfire technology—where startups offer solutions for everything from satellite-based detection to IoT sensor networks—FIRE ADAPT’s focus on the architecture of decision-making itself carves out a unique and critical niche. By modeling the mind of the firefighter, the project promises not just to predict the path of the fire, but to help guide the hands and minds working to contain it. The initiative represents a significant step toward a future where technology serves as a powerful force multiplier, enhancing the invaluable experience and judgment of those on the front lines.