Ero Copper Shatters Records, But Cautious 2026 Outlook Tempers Excitement

VANCOUVER, BC – March 05, 2026 – Ero Copper Corp. today unveiled a blockbuster financial report for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025, showcasing record copper production, skyrocketing profits, and a dramatically strengthened balance sheet. The performance, fueled by operational excellence and a surge in commodity prices, paints a picture of a company hitting its stride. However, the celebratory mood was tempered by a cautious outlook for the first half of 2026, creating a complex narrative that has captured the market's attention.

The Brazil-focused miner announced that its full-year cash flow from operations exploded by 171.7% to $395.1 million, while adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled to $409.7 million. This financial windfall allowed the company to slash its net debt leverage ratio in half, from 2.6x to a much healthier 1.2x. The impressive results were driven by a record fourth-quarter copper output of 19,706 tonnes, bringing the full-year total to 64,307 tonnes.

Despite these stellar figures, the company’s stock has seen a mixed reaction. While some analysts have raised their price targets, citing the strong fundamentals, the market appears to be digesting the company's guidance that 2026 production will be weighted towards the second half of the year due to mine sequencing and planned upgrades. This dynamic highlights the classic tension between spectacular past performance and the inherent uncertainties of future operations.

A Year of Unprecedented Financial Strength

Ero Copper’s 2025 performance was nothing short of transformative. The company's revenue for the year jumped to $785.8 million, a significant increase from $470.3 million in 2024. This translated directly to the bottom line, with net income attributable to owners reaching $263.7 million, or $2.53 per share, a dramatic reversal from the $68.5 million loss reported in the previous year.

The surge in profitability was underpinned by strong operational execution across all assets. The Caraíba Operations delivered its strongest quarter of the year, while the Tucumã Operation successfully ramped up after declaring commercial production mid-year. The Xavantina Operations also posted a record quarter for gold production, benefiting from a new program to sell gold in concentrates, which added 14,999 ounces in Q4 alone.

"The investments we made across our operations in 2025 translated into higher copper and gold production, stronger cash generation and an improved balance sheet through year-end," stated Makko DeFilippo, President and Chief Executive Officer. This successful execution has provided the company with substantial financial firepower as it looks to the future.

Riding the Commodity Super-Cycle

Ero Copper’s record-breaking year did not happen in a vacuum. The company was a major beneficiary of a powerful bull market for its primary products. Copper prices, often referred to as "Dr. Copper" for their ability to diagnose economic health, have been on a tear. Buoyed by robust demand from the global energy transition, electric vehicle manufacturing, and new power-hungry technologies like artificial intelligence, copper has been a standout performer in commodity markets, with some analysts talking of a new "super-cycle."

This "Red Metal Rally" provided a massive tailwind for Ero, allowing it to realize higher prices for its record output. Similarly, strong gold prices provided a significant boost to revenues from its Xavantina mine. The company's ability to capitalize on this favorable pricing environment through increased production demonstrates a successful alignment of operational readiness with market opportunity.

Balancing Growth with Operational Realities

While celebrating the successes of 2025, Ero Copper has been transparent about the operational cadence for 2026. The company reaffirmed its full-year guidance, projecting a further increase in consolidated copper production to between 67,500 and 77,500 tonnes. However, it carefully managed expectations by noting that output will be back-half weighted.

Several factors contribute to this timeline. At its copper operations, mine sequencing and maximizing plant throughput will lead to a gradual ramp-up during the year. At the Xavantina gold mine, Q1 production is expected to be the lowest of the year as the company advances new development into the Santo Antonio vein and integrates a new ventilation circuit. Furthermore, seasonal rainfall in the first quarter is expected to impact the drying capacity for gold concentrates, temporarily slowing those sales.

Consequently, the company projects that its consolidated C1 cash costs for copper will be higher in the first half of 2026 before decreasing in the second half. This forward-looking guidance, while potentially unsettling for investors seeking immediate returns, reflects a disciplined approach to mine planning and a commitment to long-term operational stability and efficiency.

Investing in a Larger Future

Ero is aggressively reinvesting its 2025 profits to build a larger, more diversified company. The company has guided for significant capital expenditures in 2026, ranging from $275 to $320 million. This capital is not just for maintenance; it is squarely aimed at growth.

A significant portion, approximately $80 million, is earmarked for major projects, including the continued construction of the new Pilar Mine shaft at the Caraíba Operations. This critical infrastructure project is expected to unlock future production and improve efficiency for years to come. The Xavantina Operations will also see investments in ventilation and equipment to support higher mining rates.

Perhaps most exciting for the company's long-term outlook is the advancement of the Furnas Copper-Gold Project. Following a positive Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) released in February, which outlined the potential for a large-scale, long-life operation, Ero plans to spend $30 to $40 million in 2026 on exploration, engineering, and permitting for the project. Positioned as a potential cornerstone asset, Furnas represents the next major chapter in Ero's growth story, promising to significantly elevate its production profile in the coming decade. As the company navigates the planned operational sequencing of 2026, all eyes will be on its ability to execute these ambitious growth projects and deliver on its long-term vision.