E-commerce Growth Soars, But a Widening Chasm Divides Winners and Losers

CHARLESTON, S.C. – January 14, 2026 – The American e-commerce landscape experienced a staggering 147% year-over-year surge in order volume in 2025, but the spoils of this growth were far from evenly distributed. A new landmark study from marketing automation platform Omnisend reveals a market increasingly split between a small cohort of high-performing brands and the rest of the pack, signaling a fundamental shift in the strategies required to succeed in online retail.

The eighth annual e-commerce marketing report, which analyzed data from tens of thousands of U.S.-based small and medium-sized businesses, found that the top 5% of brands were responsible for an astonishing 54% of the total order growth. This concentration of success suggests that while the digital marketplace is expanding, only the most agile and responsive businesses are capturing the lion's share of the gains.

The Great Divide: A Tale of Two E-commerce Markets

The study’s findings paint a picture of a bifurcated market, where a new class of elite brands is pulling away from the competition. This growing gap is not a matter of luck but a direct result of strategic adaptation to a rapidly evolving consumer.

"What we saw in 2025 reflects the broader U.S. economy – growth came back, but it didn't reach everyone," says Marty Bauer, an Ecommerce Expert at Omnisend, in the report. "Brands that were able to react quickly to customer behavior had a clear advantage, while others found it harder to keep up."

While the reported 147% growth in order volume is a dramatic figure, it's important to note it reflects the performance of the SMBs within Omnisend's ecosystem, a segment that may have outpaced the broader market by aggressively adopting new marketing technologies. However, the underlying trend of market concentration is a critical warning for all online retailers. The era of uniform growth appears to be over, replaced by a more competitive environment where strategic differentiation is paramount. The data indicates that the majority of brands are not keeping pace with the leaders, creating a chasm that could widen further as these new dynamics become entrenched.

Beyond the Click: The Rise of the 'Intentional Shopper'

At the heart of this market shift is a profound change in consumer behavior. The 2025 shopper is more deliberate, more selective, and less susceptible to mass-marketing tactics. The study uncovered a striking paradox: while customers are clicking on promotional messages less often, their intent to purchase is significantly higher when they do engage.

According to the data, email click rates plummeted by 33% year-over-year. Yet, for those who did click, the likelihood of making a purchase—the click-to-conversion rate—skyrocketed by 51%. Furthermore, these intentional shoppers spent more, with the average order value (AOV) climbing 22% from $149 in 2024 to $182 in 2025. This confluence of factors meant that despite fewer clicks, the average revenue generated per email still rose by 17%.

"Clicks became harder to get in 2025, but they also became more valuable," Bauer notes. "Shoppers were more selective, but when they did engage, they were ready to spend more. That shift rewarded brands that focused on efficiency and relevance, rather than volume."

This trend is likely fueled by a combination of factors. Years of economic uncertainty and inflation have trained consumers to be more discerning with their spending. Simultaneously, digital fatigue and an overload of marketing messages have made shoppers adept at tuning out irrelevant noise. They are no longer browsing aimlessly; they are on a mission, rewarding brands that provide a clear, personalized path to purchase.

The Automation Advantage: Responding in Real Time

The secret weapon for the top 5% of brands appears to be the intelligent use of behavior-based marketing automation. Instead of relying on traditional, manually scheduled campaigns that interrupt potential customers, leading brands are leveraging technology to respond to signals of intent in real time.

The performance gap between automated and scheduled marketing is stark. The study found that automated emails—such as abandoned cart reminders, welcome series, and post-purchase follow-ups—were responsible for an incredible 25% of all email marketing revenue while accounting for a mere 1.7% of total email sends. The return on investment is undeniable: the average revenue per automated email was $2.01, dwarfing the $0.10 generated by a standard scheduled campaign email.

This efficiency extends across all marketing channels. The click-to-conversion rate for automated emails was a staggering 27.05%, compared to just 7.69% for scheduled sends. Similar patterns were observed in SMS marketing (3.61% automated vs. 0.89% scheduled) and web push notifications (17.88% automated vs. 3.22% scheduled).

"Brands that relied on automation weren't trying to convince people to buy – they were responding when customers had already shown intent," Bauer explains. "In a year when attention was limited and shoppers had more options than ever, that approach worked better. Automated messages performed well because they fit naturally into how people shop today, rather than interrupting them."

A New Playbook for E-commerce Success

The implications of the Omnisend study are clear: the old playbook of batch-and-blast marketing is obsolete. Success in the modern e-commerce landscape requires a fundamental shift towards a more sophisticated, data-driven, and customer-centric approach. Brands that fail to adapt risk being left on the wrong side of the growing digital divide.

The winning strategy involves moving away from a focus on volume and toward a focus on value and relevance. This means leveraging first-party data to understand customer behavior and build detailed audience segments. It requires deploying an integrated, omnichannel strategy that seamlessly combines email, SMS, and push notifications to engage customers on their preferred channels at the most opportune moments.

Ultimately, the study underscores that technology is no longer just a tool for efficiency but a core driver of competitive advantage. The ability to listen to customer behavior and respond instantly with a relevant, personalized message is what separates the market leaders from the laggards. As the e-commerce world continues to evolve, the brands that master this new, responsive form of marketing will be the ones who continue to capture growth and define the future of online retail.