City Vitality Index: Decentralized Growth Signals Resilience in India's Urban Landscape

New Delhi, November 13, 2025 – A new report released today by Dun & Bradstreet India, leveraging satellite data and AI-driven analysis, reveals a significant shift in India’s economic landscape. The City Vitality Index (CVI) for Q4 2025 suggests a decentralization of growth, with several emerging cities demonstrating surprising resilience even as established economic hubs experience moderate slowdowns.

Traditionally, economic analyses have relied on lagging indicators. The CVI, however, utilizes nighttime luminosity data, construction activity monitoring, and traffic patterns gleaned from satellite imagery to provide a near real-time assessment of economic vitality across over 700 districts. This innovative approach is proving particularly valuable in understanding the granular impact of economic headwinds and identifying pockets of growth previously obscured by broad national trends.

Shifting Economic Power Dynamics

The report highlights a clear distinction between the performance of established metropolitan areas and rapidly developing Tier II and Tier III cities. While cities like Bengaluru continue to contribute significantly to the national GDP, the CVI indicates a moderation in their growth rate. Bengaluru, a dominant force in IT and services, experienced a slight dip in vitality scores, reflecting broader concerns about global economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures.

“While established hubs aren’t shrinking,” explains a senior analyst at CRISIL, who requested anonymity, “their rate of expansion is slowing. The real story is what’s happening elsewhere.”

Indeed, the most compelling findings emerge from the performance of emerging cities like Prayagraj, Ahmednagar, and Deoria. These cities, often overlooked in traditional economic analyses, are demonstrating a remarkable ability to withstand economic pressures and, in some cases, even accelerate their growth trajectories.

Sectoral Drivers of Resilience

The CVI data points to a strong correlation between sectoral specialization and economic resilience. Cities with diversified economies, like Bengaluru, tend to be more stable, while those heavily reliant on a single sector are more vulnerable to shocks. However, the report also reveals that targeted government investments and localized initiatives can significantly mitigate these risks.

Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, for example, has seen a surge in vitality scores driven by infrastructure development and increased tourism following the expansion of its airport. The city’s strategic location and growing connectivity are attracting investment and boosting economic activity.

Ahmednagar, Maharashtra, a key agricultural hub, has benefited from strong sugarcane production and a thriving dairy industry. Despite broader inflationary pressures, the city's agricultural sector has remained robust, driving economic growth and providing employment opportunities. “The agricultural sector’s performance has been surprisingly resilient,” notes a local agribusiness analyst. “The strong demand for food products has helped to offset some of the economic headwinds.”

Deoria, Uttar Pradesh, has also demonstrated remarkable resilience, driven by a combination of agricultural output and targeted government schemes. Increased irrigation facilities and improved access to credit have boosted agricultural productivity, leading to increased incomes and economic growth.

The Power of Satellite Data and AI

The CVI’s methodology represents a significant advancement in economic monitoring. By leveraging satellite data and AI-driven analysis, Dun & Bradstreet India is able to provide a more timely and granular assessment of economic activity than traditional methods allow.

“The ability to track construction activity, traffic patterns, and nighttime luminosity provides a unique window into economic vitality,” explains a data scientist at Dun & Bradstreet India. “This allows us to identify emerging trends and assess the impact of economic shocks in real time.”

The use of nighttime luminosity data, in particular, has proven to be a valuable indicator of economic activity. Areas with increased nighttime brightness typically exhibit higher levels of economic activity. By monitoring changes in nighttime luminosity, analysts can track economic growth and identify areas of economic distress.

However, experts caution that satellite data is not without its limitations. “Accuracy can be affected by cloud cover, atmospheric conditions, and sensor calibration,” explains an academic researcher specializing in remote sensing. “It’s important to combine satellite data with other data sources to ensure a comprehensive and accurate assessment.”

Implications for Policy and Investment

The CVI’s findings have significant implications for policy and investment. The decentralization of economic growth suggests that policymakers should focus on promoting regional development and investing in infrastructure and education in emerging cities.

“We need to move away from a purely metro-centric approach to economic development,” argues a policy analyst at NITI Aayog. “Investing in emerging cities can help to create a more balanced and sustainable economic growth trajectory.”

For investors, the CVI highlights the potential opportunities in emerging cities. These cities often offer lower land costs, a skilled workforce, and a growing consumer base. However, investors should also be aware of the risks associated with investing in emerging markets, such as political instability and regulatory uncertainty.

Looking Ahead

The CVI is a valuable tool for understanding the evolving dynamics of India’s economic landscape. As the Indian economy continues to grow and diversify, the decentralization of economic growth is likely to accelerate. By leveraging the power of satellite data and AI, Dun & Bradstreet India is providing policymakers and investors with the insights they need to navigate this changing landscape. The next quarterly report is expected to provide further insights into the sustainability of these emerging growth patterns and the effectiveness of regional development initiatives. The key takeaway remains: the future of India’s economic growth may well be written not in the sprawling metropolises, but in the dynamic and resilient cities that are quietly emerging as engines of growth.