Bunge Global Faces Storm as Short-Seller Predicts 80% Stock Collapse

By Jack Patterson

NEW YORK, NY – March 25, 2026 – Agribusiness titan Bunge Global SA (NYSE: BG) is under siege after activist short-seller Spruce Point Capital Management released a damning report, projecting a potential long-term stock price collapse of 55% to 80%. The report, titled “Slimming Down A Fat Share Price,” alleges the Geneva-based food giant is a “complex and troubled roll-up” whose recent $10.6 billion acquisition of Viterra has “wildly disappointed,” masking deep-seated financial and operational issues.

Spruce Point, a firm known for its forensic research, has taken a short position on Bunge, betting that its shares will fall. The firm's analysis paints a grim picture, suggesting Bunge’s stock could plummet to a range of $24.50 to $55.85 per share. The allegations strike at the heart of Bunge’s strategy, financial health, and transparency, raising critical questions just as the company is attempting to integrate its largest-ever acquisition.

The Viterra Gambit Under Scrutiny

At the center of Spruce Point’s thesis is the mammoth acquisition of Viterra from Glencore, which closed in July 2025. Bunge had promoted the deal as a transformative move to create a “premier global agribusiness solutions company.” However, Spruce Point contends the acquisition was a defensive “deal borne out of necessity to deflect from its core challenges.”

According to the short-seller's forensic analysis, Viterra’s performance has been a significant letdown. The report highlights an estimated 16.6% decline in Viterra's revenue last year, a figure that appears to be supported by Viterra's H1 2025 financial results showing a revenue drop and a swing from a $70 million profit to a $199 million net loss. This performance is worse than competitor Archer Daniels Midland’s 6.2% revenue decline, even as ADM was navigating its own financial accounting scandal.

Further fueling the skepticism is the history of Viterra’s former parent, Glencore, which pleaded guilty to bribery and market manipulation charges in 2022. Spruce Point suggests Bunge may have been “bamboozled” by a sophisticated seller, pointing to a startling admission in Bunge’s own proxy statement that Viterra either had no long-range financial projections or was unwilling to provide them during due diligence. Despite this, Bunge’s 2025 adjusted EBITDA reportedly fell 24% short of the projections it did manage to make.

Bunge’s own guidance has also faltered. In 2022, it forecast a mid-cycle EPS of around $11 by 2026. Now, after completing the massive Viterra deal, its 2026 EPS guidance has been slashed to a range of $7.50 to $8.00 per share—approximately 30% below the original target.

Cracks in the Core Business

Beyond the Viterra deal, Spruce Point alleges that Bunge’s core operations are under significant pressure. The report claims that since 1999, the company has generated a cash flow deficit of -$1.6 billion after capital expenditures and business investments. This suggests that the $4.7 billion in dividends and $3.9 billion in share repurchases over that period were effectively financed with debt.

Competition is a major headwind. Bunge’s latest annual report now includes an admission of growing competition in its core oilseeds business, a segment it once claimed was difficult to replicate. The report singles out the threat from COFCO, a Chinese state-owned enterprise making aggressive inroads in South America, where over a quarter of Bunge's long-lived assets are located.

Spruce Point also points to a dramatic shift in Bunge’s approach to innovation. While claiming to develop “tailored, innovative solutions,” the company’s R&D spending has contracted by over 10% in three years, and its new annual report describes its R&D efforts as “very minimal.” The report notes that a venture arm’s investments in companies like Beyond Meat and Benson Hill have largely failed, casting doubt on Bunge’s ability to adapt to new food trends.

A Question of Transparency and Financial Health

Perhaps the most damaging allegations concern Bunge’s financial reporting and transparency. Spruce Point has called for a board investigation into several key areas, accusing the company of using opaque accounting to flatter its results.

One major concern is the valuation of Viterra’s property, plant, and equipment (PP&E), which Bunge has revised downward twice by a total of $596 million. Spruce Point argues this revision lowers subsequent depreciation expenses, thereby artificially inflating earnings per share—potentially by as much as $0.44 per share.

The report also criticizes Bunge’s interpretation of its own financial metrics. Spruce Point claims that when items like capital leases and other liabilities are included, Bunge’s net debt balloons from a reported $12 billion to $19.4 billion. This would push its leverage ratio from a stated 1.9x Net Debt/EBITDA to a much more precarious 5.7x. The firm also takes issue with Bunge’s definition of Funds From Operations (FFO) and working capital, arguing that under a more conservative lens, the company’s discretionary cash flow is actually a negative -$993 million, insufficient to cover its dividend.

Compounding these concerns is a perceived lack of transparency. Bunge’s new geographic revenue reporting obscures details from volatile but critical markets like Brazil and Argentina, instead grouping them under jurisdictions like Switzerland and the Netherlands, which Spruce Point calls “notoriously secretive tax havens.”

Shifting Tides and a Looming Shareholder Exodus

External market forces and shareholder dynamics add another layer of risk. The report highlights the growing impact of GLP-1 weight loss drugs, which are altering consumer eating habits away from snacks and packaged goods that use Bunge’s core products. Bunge has yet to address this trend in its public filings or calls.

A significant stock overhang also looms. Starting July 3, 2026, former Viterra owners Glencore and the Canada Pension Plan can begin selling their combined 59 million shares, equivalent to 30% of Bunge’s outstanding stock. Another major shareholder, British Columbia Investment Management, has already liquidated the 6.5 million shares it received in the deal. This potential flood of shares comes as Bunge’s own insiders have diluted their ownership stake from 3.7% in 2020 to just 0.6% today.

Despite Bunge’s stock trading near a three-year high, Spruce Point argues the multiple expansion is unwarranted. The firm believes the combination of a struggling core business, a disappointing acquisition, immense debt, and questionable accounting practices creates a perfect storm for a significant revaluation of the company's shares.