Baltic Tourism Faces Uncertainty as Novaturas Deal Collapses

NEW YORK, NY – November 21, 2025

Deal Stalls, Regulatory Concerns Mount

AB Novaturas, the leading tour operator in the Baltic states, has announced the termination of the second stage of a transaction with Turkish investor Neset Kockar, triggering concerns about the company's growth strategy and the future of competition within the regional tourism market. The move coincides with ongoing investigations by competition authorities in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia regarding Kockar's potential acquisition of a larger stake in the company. While Novaturas cites the termination as a mutual decision, industry analysts suggest a complex interplay of regulatory hurdles and perhaps, diverging strategic visions.

Kockar's Ambitions and Novaturas' Position

Neset Kockar, founder and chairman of ANEX Tourism Group, initially acquired a 23.2% stake in Novaturas earlier this year, with plans to increase that shareholding to approximately 33%. This investment signaled Kockar’s ambition to expand his global tourism empire into the Baltic region. ANEX, already a major player in international travel, has a history of strategic acquisitions and consolidation, raising immediate concerns among Baltic regulators about potential market dominance. Novaturas, commanding roughly 40% of the organized chartered flights market in the Baltics, is a dominant force. A combined entity, or a significantly increased stake held by ANEX, would inevitably lead to heightened scrutiny.

“The Baltic market is relatively small, and Novaturas holds a significant position,” explains one industry source. “Regulators are understandably cautious about allowing one player to gain excessive control, potentially limiting consumer choice and driving up prices.” The investigations are focusing on assessing the potential impact on competition, examining whether Kockar’s increased stake would create a near-monopoly.

Financial Pressures and a Shifting Landscape

Beyond the regulatory hurdles, Novaturas’ recent financial performance paints a picture of a company navigating a challenging environment. While revenues reached EUR 201 million in 2024, profitability remains a concern, with a negative net profit margin and high levels of debt. The company's price-to-earnings ratio is currently 0 and operating margin is a low 0.19%. This financial strain potentially complicated the deal with Kockar, raising questions about Novaturas’ ability to absorb further investment or navigate a prolonged period of regulatory uncertainty.

Furthermore, the Baltic tourism market itself is undergoing a period of transition. While the region is recovering from the pandemic, tourist numbers are still lagging behind 2019 levels, and geopolitical factors, including the war in Ukraine, continue to create headwinds. This uncertain environment adds another layer of complexity to Novaturas’ strategic outlook. “The Baltics are becoming increasingly popular with tourists, but the market is also highly competitive,” says another analyst. “Novaturas needs to find a way to differentiate itself and capitalize on the growing demand.”

Regulatory Scrutiny and Regional Impact

The investigations by competition authorities in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are expected to continue for several months, with decisions anticipated by the end of the first quarter of 2026. Regulators are carefully examining the potential impact of Kockar’s investment on market structure, consumer welfare, and the overall competitiveness of the Baltic tourism industry. The scope of the investigations extends beyond simple market share calculations, encompassing considerations of pricing strategies, product differentiation, and the potential for anti-competitive behavior.

“The Baltic countries have a strong commitment to free and fair competition,” notes one legal expert specializing in competition law. “Regulators are determined to ensure that any transaction involving a major player like ANEX does not harm consumers or stifle innovation.” The outcome of these investigations could have far-reaching implications for the Baltic tourism market, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape and influencing future investment decisions.

Novaturas has not publicly commented on the reasons behind the termination of the second stage of the transaction beyond stating it was a mutual agreement. The company continues to operate and serve its customers, but the future remains uncertain. While the company is a clear market leader, increased regulatory scrutiny and financial pressures could hinder its ability to achieve its growth ambitions. The situation serves as a cautionary tale for investors considering cross-border acquisitions in the Baltic region, highlighting the importance of navigating complex regulatory landscapes and addressing potential competition concerns.