AI's Meteoric Rise Reshapes Global Business Risk Landscape in 2026

NEW YORK, NY – January 14, 2026 – For the fifth consecutive year, cyber incidents remain the most significant threat facing businesses globally, but the seismic shift in the 2026 risk landscape is the unprecedented ascent of Artificial Intelligence. Surging from tenth place in 2025 to the second-most-cited concern, AI’s rapid rise highlights a new, complex frontier of risk, according to the 15th annual Allianz Risk Barometer released by Allianz Commercial.

The report, which surveyed over 3,300 risk management experts across 97 countries, paints a picture of a world grappling with deeply interconnected threats. While digital dangers persist, the rapid integration of AI into core business functions and the growing shadow of geopolitical instability are forcing a fundamental re-evaluation of corporate resilience. For the first time, business interruption has fallen out of the top two global risks, now ranking third, not because it is less of a threat, but because it is increasingly seen as a direct consequence of the cyber, technological, and political risks that now dominate the agenda.

“Following the volatility and uncertainty of 2025, businesses continue to face interconnected and highly complex risks in 2026’s fast-changing environment,” commented Allianz Commercial CEO Thomas Lillelund. “Given the continuing rise of AI across society and industry, it is unsurprising that it is the big mover in the Allianz Risk Barometer.”

The Double-Edged Sword of Artificial Intelligence

AI’s dramatic climb to the #2 spot, cited by 32% of respondents, marks the fastest rise in the barometer’s history and underscores its dual nature as both a transformative opportunity and a profound source of peril. The technology’s rapid evolution and adoption are outpacing the development of necessary governance, regulation, and workforce readiness, creating a host of emerging exposures.

According to the report, nearly half of respondents believe AI brings more benefits than risks to their industry, pointing to its potential to enhance cybersecurity, drive operational efficiency, and create new business models. However, a fifth of experts believe the opposite, and the concerns are specific and growing. Experts identify a new class of operational, legal, and reputational risks, including system reliability failures, data quality constraints, and a significant shortage of skilled talent to manage the technology.

“Companies increasingly see AI not only as a powerful strategic opportunity but also as a complex source of operational, legal and reputational risk,” said Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz. New liability exposures are a major concern, centering on automated decision-making, the potential for biased or discriminatory models, and the misuse of intellectual property. The fundamental question of who is responsible when an AI system causes harm remains largely unanswered, creating a volatile legal environment.

Cyber's Unyielding Grip on Global Business

While AI captures the headlines for its rapid ascent, cyber incidents remain the undisputed top global risk, cited by a record 42% of respondents. The threat’s dominance reflects a deepening reliance on digital infrastructure at a time when the threat landscape is becoming more potent and complex. The concern is universal, ranking as the primary corporate worry in every global region and for companies of all sizes.

The nature of the threat continues to evolve. Ransomware remains a primary driver of losses, accounting for 58% of large cyber insurance claims in 2025. However, the focus is broadening to include massive IT outages and supply chain attacks, where a single point of failure can trigger cascading business interruptions. The 2024 CrowdStrike outage, for instance, served as a stark reminder of how dependence on a single third-party provider can paralyze global operations.

“Large companies’ investments in cyber security and resilience have been paying off, ensuring they can detect and respond to attacks early,” explained Michael Bruch, Global Head of Risk Consulting Advisory Services at Allianz Commercial. “However, cyber risk continues to evolve. Organizations are increasingly reliant on third party providers for critical data and services, while AI is supercharging threats, increasing the attack surface and adding to existing vulnerabilities.” Smaller and mid-sized enterprises (SMEs) are particularly vulnerable, as they are increasingly targeted but often lack the resources for robust cyber defenses.

The Geopolitical Tangle Reshaping Global Trade

The rising tide of global instability is directly impacting business operations, a trend reflected in the Allianz Barometer. Political Risks and Violence climbed to #7, its highest-ever ranking, while the closely linked risk of Changes in Legislation and Regulation held firm at #4. These risks are putting global supply chains under immense pressure, with just 3% of respondents viewing their supply chains as “very resilient.”

This fragility is fueled by a sharp turn toward protectionism. According to analysis from Allianz Trade, trade restrictions tripled in the past year alone, affecting an estimated US$2.7 trillion of merchandise. This trend, which the World Economic Forum has termed a new era of “geoeconomic confrontation,” is forcing companies to rethink their global footprint. In response, businesses are actively exploring strategies like ‘friendshoring’—moving operations to allied nations—and regionalization to shorten supply lines and reduce exposure to geopolitical flashpoints.

The potential for a major disruption is so significant that 51% of Barometer respondents named global supply chain paralysis due to a geopolitical conflict as the most plausible “black swan” scenario likely to materialize in the next five years.

A Diverging Landscape of Risk Perception

While the Allianz report provides a clear view from the corporate risk manager’s desk, it differs in emphasis from other major global assessments. The World Economic Forum’s 2026 Global Risks Report, for example, places geoeconomic confrontation and interstate conflict as its top immediate risks, reflecting a broader, systemic perspective. In contrast, the Allianz Barometer’s business-centric focus elevates the immediate operational threats of Cyber and AI.

This divergence is also seen in the treatment of environmental risks. While Natural Catastrophes dropped to #5 in the Allianz ranking, influenced by a quieter 2025 hurricane season, the WEF report continues to highlight extreme weather as a top risk, especially over the long term. In the United States, the top concerns mirror the global cyber and business interruption threats but place a higher emphasis on Changes in Legislation and Regulation at #3, with AI at #4. This underscores that while the threats are global, their immediate priority is often shaped by regional and industry-specific pressures, forcing businesses to navigate a complex and often contradictory map of present and future dangers.